The second weekend of the big dance is here. The Big 10, Big
12, Pac 12 and SEC all have three schools competing in regional semifinals
taking place tonight and tomorrow. Yet, the ACC, which was the country’s best
conference from start to finish in the regular season this year, has just North
Carolina left in the tournament. We are also without two number two seeds and
the number one overall seed as the second weekend tips off. It’s not called
madness for nothing. Here are some things I’m looking for in each region this
weekend.
Midwest: The first game of the Sweet 16 gets started
tonight in Kansas City featuring the red-hot Michigan Wolverines and the Oregon
Ducks. It’s been easy to cheer for John Beilein’s team over the last two weeks
after a plane crash nearly prevented Michigan from competing in the Big 10
tournament two weeks ago in the nation’s capital. The Wolverines then reeled
off four wins in four days to earn the conference’s automatic bid, won what
might have been the most exciting game of the first round of the tournament
against Oklahoma State and then upset Rick Pitino and Louisville to extract a
little bit of revenge from the 2013 national championship game. Some felt the tournament for Oregon ended
before it even started as the Ducks lost big man Chris Boucher for the rest of
the year to a torn anterior cruciate ligament. But, the Ducks had their way
with Iona in the first round and narrowly survived against Rhode Island to earn
a trip to Kansas City. However, in the first half against Rhode Island, Oregon
did not look like a Sweet 16 team. Michigan has had some ups and downs of its
own, but is certainly trending up now. The Wolverines are the hotter team and
without Boucher in the lineup for Oregon, probably the better team.
Up next in the Midwest is a Big 12-Big 10 matchup between
Kansas and Purdue. Kansas was very impressive in the latter stages of its latest
victory against Michigan State and seems to have erased any doubt that may have
lingered from a bad loss to TCU to open play in the Big 12 tournament. Purdue
was the top seed in the Big 10 tournament but was one of the four teams that
fell victim to Michigan two weeks ago at Verizon Center. The Boilermakers have
since dispatched of Vermont and Iowa State in two close games. This game
features two Naismith award candidates with in Kansas guard Frank Mason and
Purdue forward Caleb Swanigan. In addition to Mason, Kansas has gotten here
thanks in large part to guards Devonte’ Graham and Josh Jackson while Purdue’s other
frontcourt players have aided Swanigan all year. Keeping the dynamic Kansas’
backcourt under control long enough will be a big challenge for Purdue, but one
it will have to live up to if it is going to pull of an upset.
West: The two favorites in both games in San Jose
tonight have coaches that are still seeking their first trips to the Final
Four. Arizona’s Sean Miller has been to the Elite Eight three times with the
Wildcats and once while he was still at Xavier. Gonzaga’s Mark Few has been to
the Sweet 16 seven times, but only once to a regional final. Therefore, a Gonzaga-Arizona
game on Saturday would make for a fun Elite Eight contest. It’s unlikely Xavier
stands in the way of that as Sean Miller’s current team should have its way with
his old team. The Musketeers entered the tournament cold but benefited from a
favorable draw in the first weekend and Chris Mack now finds himself in his
fourth Sweet 16 since taking over for Miller in 2009. West Virginia and its full-court press has
posed problems for its first two opponents in the tournament as Bucknell and
Notre Dame turned the ball over 15 and 14 times respectively in the first two
rounds. West Virginia has looked very good at times this season but also very
pedestrian at other times. If the West Virginia team that throttled Kansas in
Morgantown shows up then the Mountaineers could surely upset Gonzaga. But, if the
team that lost to Temple in Brooklyn over Thanksgiving weekend shows up, then
this could get ugly for Bob Huggins’ squad.
East: Wisconsin, Florida, Baylor and South Carolina. Those
are the four teams everyone thought would be playing at Madison Square Garden
this weekend, right? After upsetting
number one overall seed Villanova last weekend in Buffalo, Wisconsin looks like
the best team of the four left in this region. Florida had a favorable draw,
dispatching of East Tennessee State and offensively-inept Virginia. Baylor trailed
at halftime against New Mexico State in the first round and had a dogfight
against Southern California but both of those opponents were double digit
seeds. South Carolina probably looked the most impressive of these four teams in
the first weekend, bludgeoning Marquette and dropping 65 points in the second
half of an upset victory against Duke. I’ll roll with Wisconsin to pick up two
wins and advance to Phoenix, but it’s probably not worth making any more
predictions with this region given the hysteria we’ve seen so far.
South: North Carolina is all the ACC has left and
will be in for a tough test tomorrow night against Butler. This should be an
interesting battle of frontcourts with both teams featuring experienced big
men. Kelan Martin and Andrew Chrabascz lead the way for Butler while Kennedy
Meeks and Isaiah Hicks have played their fair share of games for the Tar Heels.
Joel Berry’s right ankle will be worth monitoring here but he’s made progress
and likely won’t be too limited. The Tar Heels are the better team, but nearly
choked away their last game against Arkansas and Butler has played well in two
wins against Winthrop and Middle Tennessee State so this game should be a tight
one.
Lastly is the game everyone’s waiting for. The rematch
between UCLA and Kentucky. The Bruins bested the Wildcats in Lexington back on
December 3 in what was a high-scoring, fast-paced game. It will likely be more
of the same tomorrow night in Memphis as UCLA, led by freshman sensation and
likely top five NBA draft pick Lonzo Ball, was first in the nation in scoring
averaging 90.4 points per game. But, the Wildcats averaged 85.9 points per game
in the regular season which was fifth in the nation. Kentucky grinded one out in the previous round
against Wichita State winning 65-62 and making some big plays on defense down
the stretch. Granted, it will be much
tougher to defend UCLA, but that type of grittiness the Wildcats displayed last
weekend could go a long way in harnessing UCLA’s offensive attack. Look for defensive
anchor Bam Adebayo to be the difference to Kentucky.