The National Baseball Hall of Fame class of 2019 will be
announced today. By all indications, the Baseball Writers Association of
America is sure to elect at least Mariano Rivera, Edgar Martinez and Roy
Halladay with the fate a couple of fringe candidates up in the air as always. But, there’s one candidate worth talking about
who is neither a lock or on the periphery. This year marks the last chance for
Fred McGriff with the BBWAA on the Hall of Fame ballot. The minute Tim Raines
was elected in 2017, McGriff became the most underappreciated candidate on the
ballot.
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In 2010, McGriff debuted on the ballot with 21.5% of the
electorate behind him. Last year, his name appeared on 23.2% of the ballots. Most
of the players that land in this range fall into one of two categories. Some
are more suited for the hall of very good, but have enough support to stay
alive by a comfortable margin as five percent of the vote is what is needed to
make it to the following election. Others have ties to performance-enhancing
drugs and are not named Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens. McGriff does not fit into
either group yet has not seen the steady uptick in voting percentage that
Raines did as the electric leadoff man opened at 24.3% in 2008 and was elected
two years ago with 86.2% of the vote.
The Hall of Fame election announcement day can often spark
new school versus old school baseball debates amongst fans and voters. Comparative analysis using advanced metrics isn’t
going anywhere, though there are plenty of individuals that cling to the older
counting statistics. As baseball statistician Ryan Spaeder notes here, McGriff
checks off boxes from both crowds when looking at how he stacks up with players
that have already made it to Cooperstown. The more you stare at Spaeder’s
tweet, the more frustrated you should get. How is it possible that someone can
be equal to or better than so many Hall of Famers in so many statistical
categories, both old and new, and still be a full 50 percentage points shy of
election?
Now, let’s narrow our focus to one statistic that everyone should
believe in. The Crime Dog hit 493 home runs. That gives him the most dingers out
of anyone not in the Hall of Fame that does not have steroid ties. If the
work stoppage does not happen in 1994, McGriff gets to 500 homers and this isn’t
a conversation. Maybe some voters are so stuck in their ways with those kinds
of benchmarks that the difference between 493 and 500 is far more than just
seven bombs.
Perhaps the most extraneous factor that plays a role in both
Hall of Fame and award voting is team success and lack thereof. Though, even
that doesn’t explain the disrespect for McGriff. He played on some very good
Toronto teams in the late 80s and 1990 to start his career. He also had some
big years for Atlanta in the mid 90s and was a part of the Braves 1995 World
Series title, even if he wasn’t the biggest name on the roster. He did play for
some cellar dwellers in Tampa Bay and Chicago at the end of his career, but by
then he already had put together a nice resume.
All that’s left to point to here is the fact that McGriff
played right through the prime of the steroid era. This brings us back to his
home run total of 493. Now that we’re 15 years removed from McGriff’s playing
days, it’s probably easy to look at that number and be impressed and question
why he isn’t close to Cooperstown. But when he was accumulating those
statistics, he was drowned out by the likes of Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, Sheffield
and Ramirez. Another one of those extraneous factors than can come into play
for voters is an era bias. In other words, how did you compare with your peers
and were you one of the best players to play the game for the majority of your
career? For obvious reasons, McGriff does not compare well with other power hitters
that played during his time. This same argument could be used in favor of
pitchers that played during the steroid era and probably works to Mike Mussina’s
advantage as he looks to get closer to the 75% threshold today.
Put your feelings about the players from the steroid era aside
for a minute and think more about how the era always had players like McGriff that
were doing it right all along left behind. He only made it to the All-Star game
five times. He only finished in the top five of MVP voting once. So, he must
not be a Hall of Famer!
It’s a shame that this is likely why McGriff never got close
to Cooperstown with the writers. He’ll probably get some sympathy votes today
with it being his final year, but that’s not going to change anything. Thankfully,
the Today’s Game Committee will almost certainly put him in. I can’t think of a
better candidate whose career is worth a second look through such a committee
than McGriff. If Harold Baines and Lee Smith can get in this way, then Fred
McGriff certainly can. I look forward to the day we have justice for the Crime Dog.
It’s long overdue.
