2014-2015 NBA Season Preview

On the eve of another NBA season here are my standings, awards, and playoff predictions:

*Numbers next to certain teams are playoff seeds

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

1.     Toronto Raptors (4)

2.     New York Knicks (8)

3.     Brooklyn Nets

4.     Boston Celtics

5.     Philadelphia 76ers

Analysis: Not much to like about this division.  Toronto is the only team that has a chance to win 50 games.  The Raptors have a nice athletic core with Terrence Ross and Demar Derozan on the wings and a good point guard in Kyle Lowry.  It gets ugly fast though.  The Knicks were a mess last season and if Derek Fisher struggles to implement the triangle offense in the Big Apple it might not be any better.  By default, I think the Knicks sneak into the playoffs.  Brooklyn’s attempt to contend for a championship last season failed and they have an aging nucleus and don’t have too many draft picks.  Lionel Hollins coming in as the head coach won’t help fix that.  The Nets are in trouble.  The Celtics are in the midst of a rebuild and should look to trade Rajon Rondo to acquire more draft picks though watching sixth overall pick Marcus Smart this season will be interesting.  The Sixers are firing up the tank again and will probably win fewer than the 19 games they won last season.

Southeast Division

1.     Washington Wizards (3)

2.     Miami Heat (5)

3.     Charlotte Hornets (6)

4.     Atlanta Hawks (7)

5.     Orlando Magic

Analysis: Washington is one of the best up-and-coming teams in the NBA.  With John Wall and Bradley Beal anchoring the backcourt and the addition of Paul Pierce in the offseason, the Wizards should win this division.   In the first year of the post-LeBron era, the Heat should be good enough to make the playoffs, but Dwyane Wade’s health should be worth monitoring as well as Chris Bosh’s production after he got a max contract over the summer and is taking on a much larger role on offense.  The Hornets are another nice team on the rise and the addition of Lance Stephenson should definitely get them back in the playoffs for the second straight year. Atlanta is just okay and much like the Knicks sneak in by default as I think there’s a big gap between Charlotte and Atlanta.  Orlando is looking to add more pieces in the draft and will struggle through their third season since the Dwight Howard trade.

Central Division

1.)  Chicago Bulls (1)

2.)  Cleveland Cavaliers (2)

3.)  Detroit Pistons

4.)  Indiana Pacers

5.)  Milwaukee Bucks

Analysis: The Bulls are for real pending the health of a certain point guard and former MVP out of Memphis.  Derrick Rose needs to stay on the court but if he can I think he can still play at a high level and contend for the MVP award and Tom Thibodeau will of course have his team playing defense.  Adding Pau Gasol should help them on the offensive end.  Cleveland will be so much fun to watch. I think it’s awesome that LeBron went back home and I can already imagine Kevin Love throwing outlet pass after outlet pass to him in transition.  Detroit could be a borderline playoff team because I think there’s too much talent on that team for them to be as bad as they were last year.  Indiana is in bad shape.  They lost Lance Stepehnson and Paul George may miss the entire season.  They’ll be quite the offensively challenged team.  It will be hard for Milwaukee to be much worse than last year with Jason Kidd on the sideline now and Rookie of the Year favorite Jabari Parker providing lots of offense.

Western Conference

Southwest Division

1.)  San Antonio Spurs (1)

2.)  Houston Rockets (4)

3.)  Dallas Mavericks (6)

4.)  Memphis Grizzlies (8)

5.)  New Orleans Pelicans

Analysis: This is the best division in the NBA.  San Antonio comes in as the defending champs and until proven otherwise, I’ll put them as my top team in the West.  Houston lost Chandler Parsons but Trevor Ariza will help them defensively and knock down three-point shots like Parsons did.  Dallas got a lot better in the offseason adding Jameer Nelson, Raymond Felton, Al-Farouq Aminu, Tyson Chandler, and Chandler Parsons to a team that won 49 games a year ago.  Memphis will still be rock solid on defense, adding Vince Carter was a nice move, and Zach Randolph will still give them reliable post offense.  New Orleans has some nice young players but it’s just hard to take anyone else in the West out of the playoffs.

Northwest Division

1.)  Oklahoma City Thunder (3)

2.)  Portland Trail Blazers (7)

3.)  Denver Nuggets

4.)  Minnesota Timberwolves

5.)  Utah Jazz

Analysis: Oklahoma City will miss Kevin Durant enough early on to slip back from second in the West last year to third this season but once he gets back they’ll be a title contender.  Portland didn’t really do anything major in the offseason, and while LaMarcus Aldridge is so much fun to watch I don’t know if they can earn home-court advantage in the first round again.  Denver has some decent young players but that’s not enough to make the playoffs in the West.  Minnesota will be really fun to watch with their young core but inexperience will keep them around 30 wins this season.  Utah is continuing a rebuild, which I think may take some time.  I’m not sure if Trey Burke and Dante Exum can play together.

Pacific Division

1.)  Los Angeles Clippers (2)

2.)  Golden State Warriors (5)

3.)  Phoenix Suns

4.)  Los Angeles Lakers

5.)  Sacramento Kings

Analysis: The Clippers have a lot to prove this season after a disappointing six-game exit in the second round of the playoffs against Oklahoma City last year.  Golden State will still score a ton of points even though I’m still not sure why they fired Mark Jackson. Phoenix is good, but not good enough to make the playoffs in the West.  I think Kobe has a nice year for the Lakers, but he doesn’t have enough help.  Sacramento has one of the best centers in the game in Demarcus Cousins, but he doesn’t have enough help either.  Selecting Nik Stauskas eighth overall over Noah Vonleh who could have helped Cousins up front was a head scratcher.

Awards

MVP: LeBron James (Cleveland)

Coach of the Year: Dwane Casey (Toronto)

Defensive Player of the Year: Anthony Davis (New Orleans)

Sixth Man of the Year: Tristan Thompson (Cleveland)

Rookie of the Year: Nerlens Noel (Philadelphia)

Playoffs

Eastern Conference

First Round

1-Chicago over 8-New York in 5

2-Cleveland over 7-Atlanta in 4

3-Washington over 6-Charlotte in 6

4-Toronto over 5-Miami in 7

Second Round

1-Chicago over 4-Toronto in 6

2-Cleveland over 3-Washington in 6

Eastern Conference Finals

           

2-Cleveland over 1-Chicago in 6

Western Conference

First Round

1-San Antonio over 8-Memphis in 6

2-LA Clippers over 7-Portland in 6

3-Oklahoma City over 6-Dallas in 7

5-Golden State over 4-Houston in 7

Second Round

1-San Antonio over 5-Golden State in 6

2- LA Clippers over 3-Oklahoma City in 7

Western Conference Finals

2- LA Clippers over 1- San Antonio in 7

NBA Finals

Cleveland Cavaliers over Los Angeles Clippers in 7

      

NHL 2014-2015 Season Predictions

NHL 2014-2015 Season Predictions

With the puck set to drop in NHL arenas, time to give my predictions for the season.  An asterisk denotes a playoff team.

Eastern Conference

Metropolitan Division

1.)    Pittsburgh Penguins*

2.)    New York Rangers*

3.)    New York Islanders*

4.)    Columbus Blue Jackets*

5.)    Washington Capitals*

6.)    Philadelphia Flyers

7.)    New Jersey Devils

8.)    Carolina Hurricanes

Analysis: I think this is the deepest division in the NHL.  Arguments can be made for every team except Carolina to be a playoff team.  Pittsburgh lost some pieces in the offseason, but is still the class of the division as long as Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are healthy.  The Rangers had some subtractions from their Eastern Conference championship roster as well as Brian Boyle, Anton Stralman, and Brad Richards are no longer around, but are still very strong defensively and still have Henrik Lundqvist.  The Islanders are much improved.  Having made the playoffs in 2012-2013, they fell off a cliff last year once John Tavares got hurt in the Olympics.  With Tavares back, the addition of forwards Nikolai Kulemin and Mikhail Grabovski, Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk added on the back end, and Jaroslav Halak between the pipes, look for the Islanders to make the playoffs for the second time in three years.  Columbus is quite an up-and-coming team with a roster with lots of promise and Scott Hartnell could be a helpful glue guy for them.  Washington will be better as well having improved their defense bringing in Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik from Pittsburgh and Barry Trotz was a good hire for them.  The Flyers weren’t able to do much in the offseason due to their cap situation.  Steve Mason might be their goalie for the future but they have an average to good at best defense and will need to score a lot of goalies to have a chance at the playoffs.  Mike Cammalleri and Martin Havlat help the Devils up front but there’s not enough offensive firepower to help Corey Scheinder.  Carolina will be cellar dwellers without having done much to improve in the offseason and Eric Staal and Jeff Skinner sustained injuries in the preseason.

Atlantic Division

1.)    Tampa Bay Lightning*

2.)    Boston Bruins*

3.)    Montreal Canadiens*

4.)    Toronto Maple Leafs

5.)    Detroit Red Wings

6.)    Ottawa Senators

7.)    Florida Panthers

8.)    Buffalo Sabres

Analysis: Tampa Bay will win this division with a healthy Steven Stamkos and an improved blue line with Jason Garrison and Anton Stralman on board.  Boston won’t be far behind though as Tuukka Rask will compete for the Vezina and Zdeno Charra is always a threat to win the Norris.  Montreal went to the Eastern Conference Finals last year and may have won if Carey Price did not get hurt.  The Canadiens young forwards and Price will propel them into the playoffs.  Toronto and Detroit will vie for wild card spots with the teams that aren’t in the top three in the Metropolitan but there’s too much depth in the Metropolitan for me to see Toronto or Detroit make the playoffs.   For Detroit, this would end of streak of over two decades of making the playoffs.  Ottawa, Florida, and Buffalo will keep the basement warm in this division.

Western Conference

Central Division

1.)    St. Louis Blues*

2.)    Chicago Blackhawks*

3.)    Colorado Avalanche*

4.)    Dallas Stars*

5.)    Nashville Predators

6.)    Minnesota Wild

7.)    Winnipeg Jets

Analysis: While I tend to lean towards the Metropolitan as the deepest division in the NHL, the Central is also very deep.  St. Louis is a very talented team that just hasn’t been able to get it done in the playoffs.  Nonetheless they’ll have another shot this year.  Chicago is always a force to be reckoned with and Colorado, much like Columbus in the East, has an up-and-coming roster of young talent.  Dallas is loaded offensively and while they have some question marks on defense should be able to score enough to make the playoffs.  Nashville could be the most improved team in the West with Pekka Rinne healthy, a strong defense, and Peter Laviolette behind the bench.  Minnesota won a round in the playoffs last year but there has to be an odd team out here.  Similar to the Flyers in the Metropolitan, Minnesota isn’t a bad team, there are just better ones in this division and Winnipeg will be left at the bottom.

Pacific Division                                                                                                                                    1.)    Los Angeles Kings*

2.)    Anaheim Ducks*

3.)    San Jose Sharks*

4.)    Vancouver Canucks*

5.)    Edmonton Oilers

6.)    Arizona Coyotes

7.)    Calgary Flames

Analysis: The Kings aren’t going anywhere.  Anaheim and San Jose will still be playoff teams but questions remain about Bruce Boudreau and Todd McLellan.  Vancouver should be a playoff team with Ryan Miller solidifying their goaltending situation.  Edmonton has young talent especially up front and will be improved while the Coyotes and Flames struggle.

Awards

Hart Trophy (League MVP): Steven Stamkos- Tampa Bay

Rocket Richard Trophy (Most Goals): Steven Stamkos- Tampa Bay

Art Ross Trophy (Most Points): John Tavares- New York Islanders

Norris Trophy (Best Defenseman): Drew Doughty- Los Angeles

Vezina Trophy (Best Goalie): Carey Price- Montreal

Calder Trophy (Best Rookie): Jonathan Drouin- Tampa Bay

Playoffs

Metropolitan First Round

Washington over Pittsburgh in 7

New York Rangers over New York Islanders in 6

Metropolitan Second Round

New York Rangers over Washington in 5

Atlantic First Round

Tampa Bay over Columbus in 6

Montreal  over Boston in 7

Atlantic Second Round

Tampa Bay over Montreal in 7

Eastern Conference Finals

Tampa Bay over New York Rangers in 6 

                

Central First Round

St. Louis over Dallas in 6

Chicago over Colorado in 6

Central Second Round

Chicago over St. Louis in 7

Pacific First Round

Los Angeles over Vancouver in 5

Anaheim over San Jose in 7

Pacific Second Round

Los Angeles over Anaheim in 5

Western Conference Finals

Chicago over Los Angeles in 6

Stanley Cup Final

Tampa Bay over Chicago in 6

Happy Hockey Season!

Jameis Winston and the Heisman Trophy repeat

I’ll start by saying Jameis Winston is an immensely talented quarterback, and if you want to talk about just talent alone, he will absolutely translate to the NFL whenever he decides to enter the draft.  Usually after the first month of the season it’s fair to begin to assess legitimacy of some Heisman hopefuls.  In the first month, we’ve seen another Jameis Winston off-the-field incident.  Running backs Ameer Abdullah from Nebraska, Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon, and Todd Gurley of Georgia are all averaging over seven yards per carry.  Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota is completing almost 75 percent of his passes,  averages close to 300 passing yards per game, and is on pace to rush for around 900 yards as well.

                                                                            Jeff Romance
Jameis Winston has his work cut out for him
if he wants to win a second straight Heisman trophy.

So what am I saying? Forget about the fact that Jameis Winston missed Florida State’s victory against Clemson.  Arche Griffin is the only man to ever win back-to-back Heisman trophies and I’m starting to see why it’s so hard.  I’m not trying to take anything away from Winston, but the odds are heavily against him.  Breakout performances like those of Gordon, Gurley, Abdullah, and Mariota are bound to happen in college football each season.  As a matter of fact, recently the Heisman has been a way of introducing America to the next big thing in football.  Who knew who Cam Newton was before he won the Heisman?  The same can be said for Robert Griffin III and Johnny Manziel.

Players like Gordon, Gurley, Abdullah, and Mariota aren’t quite in this group as all have been featured on their teams in recent years but never have had the kind of success they’re off to season.

There are just too many talented college football players.  Whether or not all of them translate to the NFL is a different story.  But after a month of the season, I can say confidently that I don’t think Jameis Winston will win the Heisman trophy.  Melvin Gordon was my pick before the season started.   I would like to see Gordon, Abdullah, or Gurley win to end the running back drought.  If you don’t count Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram is the only running back to win the Heisman in the 21^st century.  But even if you buy the quarterback bias, I still think the odds are against Winston.  

I already mentioned Mariota and UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley and Baylor’s Bryce Petty will remain in conversation if their teams keep winning.  Who knows? Maybe Kenny Hill even has a chance to make it two of the last three years for a Texas A&M first-year starting quarterback to win the Heisman.  While it’s been 23 years since Desmond Howard was the last wide receiver to win, Alabama’s Amari Cooper needs to be considered.  Amongst all these worthy candidates, it’s very hard for the same one to emerge two years in a row.  Jameis Winston was by far the best player in college football last season.  It’s not that easy this time around.

Photo:

http://www.news4jax.com/sports/jameis-winston-wins-heisman-troph/23492166

Early Eagles observations

-          Two games in it hasn’t been perfect, but the Eagles are two for two.  Here are some observations:

        Offensive line question marks: Andrew Gardner and Dennis Kelly filled in Monday night against Indianapolis at right tackle and left guard respectively.  Gardner seemed to have his fair share of difficulties at right tackle, but the Eagles will need him Sunday against Washington, and in week four against San Francisco before Lane Johnson is eligible to return from his suspension.  Dennis Kelly will be needed longer than just two more games with Evan Mathis on injured reserve designated to return.  With the Eagles having signed former Houston left guard Wade Smith, there could be some pressure on Kelly to earn his snaps with Mathis not expected back until the end of November.  The Eagles will definitely need Jason Kelce, Todd Herremans, and Jason Peters to stay healthy.

                                                                Rob Carr/Getty Images
While 27 touchdowns and two interceptions may be tough to
live up to again, Nick Foles has still thrown for over 300 yards
in the Eagles two games so far this season.

-          Nick Foles: He’s been good enough to win two games, but there have been some red flags.  He fumbled twice against Jacksonville and has thrown an interception in each of the Eagles first two games.  It would be nice to see him take care of the ball and not be so indecisive sometimes, but he’s still thrown for over 300 yards in both games so that’s a plus.

-          Darren Sproles: The Eagles best player so far.  His explosiveness in the short passing game and as a returner is just what the Eagles needed to keep LeSean McCoy fresh.

-          Slow starts: The Eagles have been outscored 34-6 in first halves this season.  So you could say they’re lucky to be 2-0.  It would be nice

                                                                     USA Today Sports
Darren Sproles was recently named the NFC's Offensive
Player of the Week after his breakout performance Monday Night.

to see a 60-minute effort from the Eagles on Sunday.

-          Marcus Smith: He hasn't played yet, so it looks like the Eagles weren't kidding when they said he was a project.

-          Defense:  Surprisingly decent against the pass and Andrew Luck on Monday night, but struggled against the run as Trent Richardson looked at times like he was at Alabama again and Ahmad Bradshaw had two receiving touchdowns.  The run defense was pretty good last year and will get tested by Alfred Morris on Sunday so we’ll see if this was an aberration or not but the pass defense was encouraging against the Colts.

Photos:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1866516-chip-kelly-names-nick-foles-eagles-starting-qb-for-rest-of-season

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/09/philadelphia-eagles-indianapolis-colts-darren-sproles-monday-night-football

10 College Football Random Thoughts

As the last week of August has arrived so has the start of the college football season.  Here are ten quick thoughts.

1.)    PLAYOFFS?!-  This is what everyone was waiting for.  But the question remains if the four-team playoff will quell the college football postseason debates which the BCS always seemed to spark.  Fans probably would like to see it expand to eight but is it fair to teams to make the break in between conference championship games and the start of the playoff shorter or extend the season close to February?  This year most FBS conference championships will be played on December 6, with the playoff semifinals on New Year’s Day, followed by the National title on January 12.  It’s worth monitoring how this pans out as there will surely still be postseason debates about teams left out of the playoff which will prompt discussions about revisions.

                                                 Getty Images
Jameis Winston could be in line for a
second straight Heisman Trophy this year.

2.)    Time’s yours, Jameis- Noted crab leg enthusiast, reigning Heisman trophy winner, and Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston has made the headlines a lot both on and off the field during and after his Heisman season.  With defending champion Florida State at the top of polls as the season gets underway nothing short of a repeat is expected and Winston will have to perform similarly to the way he did a year ago.

3.)    Quack Quack- Oregon is once again in the top five to start the year.  The Ducks missed out on a BCS bowl game last season but won the Fiesta Bowl two years ago and the Rose Bowl in 2011.  Quarterback Marcus Mariota is receiving early Heisman trophy recognition.  In an improved Pac 12 can the Ducks remain at the top come December?

4.)    Boomer Sooner- I like this Oklahoma team.  They had a very impressive 45-31 victory in the Sugar Bowl against Alabama to close out 2013 in which quarterback Trevor Knight looked crisp throwing for 348 yards and 4 touchdowns against a stout Alabama defense.  Can Knight have success over the course of a full season?  Oklahoma will be tested on November 8 against Baylor but other than that could realistically go undefeated this season en route to the Big 12 title game.

                                                 Getty Images
Don't be surprised if Nick Saban and
Alabama are one of four teams left on
New Year's Day.

            5.)    Crimson Tide the top dogs in the SEC- There’s some new faces in Tuscaloosa this year but Alabama still figures to be a national powerhouse.  Jacob Coker and Blake Sims were both listed as starting quarterbacks on Alabama’s first depth chart but Alabama remains strong defensively and has the playmakers in the backfield and in the passing game to allow for a feeling out period for the coaching staff and these two

quarterbacks.

             6.)    Auburn…lucky last year?- How many times have the chaos of last year’s iron bowl shown on Sportscenter? Or how about the Hail Mary to win the game against Georgia?  Yes, Auburn was a late-game drive by Florida State away from hoisting the Coaches Trophy but there are plenty of skeptics as to the legitimacy of Auburn’s run to the National Championship last year.  Auburn will have plenty of chances to prove themselves this year with games against LSU, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Alabama in conference this year.

       7.)    What’s going on in the Big Ten?- Things certainly opened up when Ohio State lost Braxton Miller for the year.  I think it’s Michigan State, Wisconsin, and then everybody else but if a team can upset one of those two and get hot in what looks to be a weak conference who knows?

8.)    Can the Pac 12 rival the SEC as the nation’s best conference?- The SEC has eight teams in the AP top 25 and the Pac 12 has six.  Oregon and UCLA are in the top ten for the Pac 12 while Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina are for the SEC.  Perhaps two of these five teams could meet in the playoff.  It will be interesting to see how strong the Pac 12 is from top to bottom compared to the SEC which has obviously dominated college football in recent years.

                                              Getty Images
Expect to see a lot of this guy on your
television screens on Saturday afternoons.

9.)    Quarterback preview- A Jameis Winston-Marcus Mariota showdown in the National Championship would be fun.  But Bryce Petty of Baylor, Brett Hundley of UCLA are two guys to keep an eye on as well as aforementioned Trevor Knight in Oklahoma and don’t forget about Nick Marshall at Auburn who will have a more important role in that offense with Tre Mason gone.

10.) Why Melvin Gordon will win the Heisman- Save the best for last.  I believe Melvin Gordon flashes the pose in New York this year.  He’ll be aided by what looks like a weak Big 10.  In addition the Badgers are set to start junior quarterback Tanner McEvoy who is relatively unproven so I expect a heavy dosage of runs in their offense and with James White gone to the NFL that means a lot of Gordon.  Gordon is an explosive playmaker who I think can overcome the fact that defenses should be game planning around him.  Sooner or later the running back Heisman drought had to come to an end right?

Photos:

http://www.examiner.com/article/cory-jennerjohn-melvin-gordon-needs-to-get-fat-on-carries

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/12/14/jameis-winston-awarded-heisman-trophy-despite-criminal-investigation/#

http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/zstArFe77OH/Alabama+v+Florida/-8VkAQYl3YA/Nick+Saban

NFL 2014 Season Predictions

With the NFL preseason underway, there’s no better time to go through each division and predict the playoff teams and super bowl outcome.

*Numbers in parentheses are teams’ playoff seeds

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (4): 10-6

New York Giants: 9-7

Washington Redskins: 8-8

Dallas Cowboys: 6-10

Analysis: The Eagles upgraded their secondary in the offseason with several acquisitions most notably the signing of former New Orleans Saints safety Malcom Jenkins.  Another problem on defense for the Eagles last season was their pass rush.  This remains questionable as first-round draft pick Marcus Smith’s implementation into the defense may not yield an immediate impact.  Despite the release of DeSean Jackson I expect the Eagles to again be one of the NFL’s best offensive teams and this should be enough for them to defend their division title.  The Giants are the biggest challengers.  If Eli Manning does a better job taking care of the ball they should improve on their 7-9 record from a year ago.  The Redskins are interesting.  Like the Eagles, they shouldn’t have a problem scoring points with an abundance of weapons on offense.  But their defense will hold them back from contending for a playoff spot.  If the Redskins defense will hold them back, then the Cowboys ought to not bother playing this season.  While they too have weapons on offense, the loss of Sean Lee for the year to what was already a below average defense could find the Cowboys last in lots of defensive categories.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers (3): 11-5

Chicago Bears (6): 10-6

Detroit Lions: 7-9

Minnesota Vikings: 4-12

Analysis: The Packers won the division last year and Aaron Rodgers missed close to half the season.  They’ll be a Super Bowl contender with their top-notch signal caller back healthy.  The Bears probably should have won the division last year but got blown out by the Eagles week 16 and choked away the winner-take-all division game week 17 at home against the Packers.  They’ll have to improve on defense against the run but offensively Jay Cutler and company should score a lot and win enough to be a playoff team.  The Lions are another team, like Washington and Dallas in the NFC East, whose offense will score but defense will let them down preventing them from competing for the playoffs. Minnesota just isn’t ready to win yet and will likely use the year to see what they have in rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints (1): 13-3

Atlanta Falcons: 9-7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-8

Carolina Panthers: 7-9

Analysis: The Saints are another prolific offense led by Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham so it may be easy to overlook the job Rob Ryan did with their defense last year.  The Saints were fourth in total defense a year ago. They lost Malcolm Jenkins but they replaced him with Jairus Byrd in free agency to play alongside Kenny Vaccaro in the secondary.  Pass rushers Cameron Jordan and Junior Galette tallied 12.5 and 12 sacks respectively last season and both figure to wreak havoc for quarterbacks in 2014 as well.  The Falcons lost a lot of close games last year and also lost their best wide receiver Julio Jones in the first half of the season.  Steven Jackson also missed time last year as well for Atlanta.  So I think they’re better than their 4-12 record from last year indicates but their defense isn’t good enough to get them into the playoffs.  Tampa Bay will be improved with the addition of Josh McCown, Doug Martin back healthy, and Lovie Smith calling the shots on the sideline.   It’s weird seeing a team go from first to last but I think the other three teams in this division will be better and the Panthers won’t be able to score enough points to get back into the playoffs.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers (2): 12-4

Seattle Seahawks (5): 11-5

Arizona Cardinals: 10-6

St. Louis Rams: 8-8

Analysis: Despite NaVorro Bowman’s injury, I think the 49ers have enough defensive depth, and will be able to score more points this year with Michael Crabtree healthy at the beginning of the year unlike last season, to win the division.  Seattle plays a tough schedule and while their defense is still phenomenal, I think the lack of offensive firepower catches up to them a little bit during the regular season, enough to have to settle for a wild card.  Arizona is another team with a strong defense but has too many question marks on offense for me to see them as a playoff team.  The Rams should be better this season, but to make the playoffs out of the NFC West you’ll have to be better than 8-8 and St. Louis isn't that good just yet.

AFC East

New England Patriots (1): 13-3

New York Jets (6): 9-7

Buffalo Bills: 8-8

Miami Dolphins: 7-9

Analysis: New England is the cream of the crop in this division and it’s hard to see any other team getting in their way this season.  That said, don’t sleep on the Jets.  They won eight games last year with one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  They added Chris Johnson and Eric Decker in the offseason.  Whether their quarterback is Geno Smith or Michael Vick this season, expect the Jets to run the ball a lot and ask the starter to manage the game and take care of the ball.  Rex Ryan always has his defenses ready to go and I expect the Jets defense to keep them in enough games to sneak into the playoffs.  Buffalo moved up in the draft to grab explosive playmaker Sammy Watkins to go with their explosive running back CJ Spiller.  However they’ve had some injuries on their defense, most notably linebacker Kiko Alonso and so it’s hard to see them elevating themselves into the playoffs this season.  The Dolphins lack the weapons on both sides of the ball and will probably finish below .500 this season.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers (4): 10-6

Baltimore Ravens: 9-7

Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7

Cleveland Browns: 5-11

Analysis: This division is a three-team race but I like Pittsburgh.  I think they’ll play a smash mouth style this year with a lot of Le’Veon Bell on the ground and Antonio Brown figures to be explosive in the passing game.  Baltimore regressed last year as defending Super Bowl champions and maybe Gary Kubiak helps their offense become a little more explosive.  The Ravens were 29^th in the NFL in total offense and 25^th in points scored.  Cincinnati will be good but not good enough as I think Pittsburgh and Baltimore will be improved preventing Cincinnati from another division title.  Cleveland will spend the year hoping they’ve found their quarterback of the future as the battle between Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel has started in training camp.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts (2): 12-4

Houston Texans: 6-10

Jacksonville Jaguars: 4-12

Tennessee Titans: 2-14

Analysis: The worst division in football.  But Indianapolis is legit.  Andrew Luck and company should win the division with ease and I expect a bounce back year from Trent Richardson as I look for the Colts to earn one of the first-round playoff byes in the AFC.  Houston is still looking for a quarterback and outside of Arian Foster and an aging Andre Johnson has limited weapons on offense.  But expect their defense to show promise and obviously keep an eye on rookie pass rusher and first overall pick Jadeveon Clowney.  Jacksonville appears to want to groom Blake Bortles under Chad Henne this season and added wide receivers Marquise Lee and Allen Robinson in the draft to aid Henne in the passing game.  Gus Bradley is a defensive guy and they should be respectable on defense like Houston.  Tennessee might be the worst team in football this season.  I don’t think Jake Locker is the quarterback they should move forward with and the Titans are just a team devoid of talent at the skill positions.

AFC West

Denver Broncos (3): 12-4

Kansas City Chiefs (5): 11-5

San Diego Chargers: 8-8

Oakland Raiders: 3-13

Analysis: Denver is back and should win this division for the fourth straight season with their high-powered offense and improved defense after adding DeMarcus Ware and TJ Ward in the offseason. Kansas City again will be in the mix in this division but I can’t see enough offensive firepower outside of Jamaal Charles for Kansas City to move past Denver.  I think San Diego takes a step back this season.  Philip Rivers had a very good year last season posting a single season career high in completion percentage and throwing for the second most yards he has in his career in any one season.   I don’t see Rivers duplicating that nor do I see San Diego’s defense carrying them back into the playoffs.  Oakland will challenge Tennessee for the number one overall pick in 2015.

Playoffs

Wild Card Round

(6) Chicago over (3) Green Bay

(5) Seattle over (4) Philadelphia

(3) Denver over (6) New York (A)

(5) Kansas City over (4) Pittsburgh

Divisional Round

(1) New Orleans over (6) Chicago

(2) San Francisco over (5) Seattle

(3) Denver over (2) Indianapolis

(1) New England over (5) Kansas City

Conference Championship Round

(2) San Francisco over (1) New Orleans

(1) New England over (3) Denver

Super Bowl XLIX

(2) San Francisco over (1) New England

Analysis: My gut feeling is that San Francisco is on a mission after falling just shy of the Super Bowl two years ago against Baltimore and just short of appearing in another Super Bowl after falling to division rival Seattle in the NFC Championship game last year.  They’ll win the division this year which will pay dividends come playoff time when I expect them to see Seattle again except this time in San Francisco.  New England and Tom Brady will make a push for another Super Bowl but run into a hot defense yet again and be stymied by the 49ers in the Super Bowl.  Happy football season!