2017 NFL Season Predictions

Here's how I see 2017 unfolding in the NFL. Playoff seeds are listed to the left of each team.

NFC East:

 

(3) New York Giants: 11-5

(5) Dallas Cowboys: 10-6

      Philadelphia Eagles: 9-7

      Washington Redskins: 6-10

Analysis: This should be one of the most competitive divisions in football as it was last season. The Giants are loaded with weapons on offense and saw their defense improve significantly last year. They’ll enter the season as a slight favorite in this division and their offensive line is the only serious question mark. Many experts are forecasting a regression to the mean for Dallas after a 13-win season in 2016.  The win total should decrease for the Cowboys, but there’s enough talent on their roster to return to the playoffs, regardless of how many games Ezekiel Elliott plays this year. The Eagles had a good offseason, filling several holes, and should compete for a playoff spot while the Redskins appear to be the odd team out.

NFC North:

            (2) Green Bay Packers: 12-4

                  Detroit Lions: 8-8

                  Minnesota Vikings: 7-9

                  Chicago Bears: 4-12

Analysis: It’s hard to think of a team challenging Green Bay here, although Detroit did make the playoffs in 2016 and Minnesota got off to a hot start before coming back to earth. The Packers are the team with the fewest flaws in the NFC North. Detroit’s offensive line and pass defense both appear to be suspect entering the season and the ceiling for Minnesota’s offense remains low. Chicago is in a rebuilding phase and the biggest question of its season will be when the reins are handed to number two overall pick Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback.

NFC South:

            (4) Carolina Panthers: 10-6

                  Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7

                  Atlanta Falcons: 9-7

                  New Orleans Saints: 7-9

Analysis: While this division holds the defending NFC champions, it’s likely to be at least a three-team race all season. Carolina’s schedule is favorable early and the Panthers close with three of their last four in their backyard in Charlotte. Therefore, a path to 10 wins is very conceivable for Ron Rivera’s bunch. Tampa Bay and Atlanta will certainly be in the playoff picture, but in a crowded NFC, some teams are bound to be left out. Atlanta’s offense likely will not be as good as it was one year ago with the departure of Kyle Shanahan to San Francisco and Tampa Bay doesn’t appear to be all that much better from its 9-7 season in 2016. If New Orleans can piece together even an average defense this year, the Saints could hang around, but that remains to be seen.

NFC West:

(1)   Seattle Seahawks: 13-3

(6)  Arizona Cardinals: 10-6

       Los Angeles Rams: 7-9

       San Francisco 49ers: 3-13

Analysis: Seattle won the NFC West last year with Russell Wilson, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor and Thomas Rawls all hampered by injuries. Their offensive line is still a mess, but it’s been a concern the last couple seasons and the Seahawks have still posted double-digit win seasons every year since 2012. A healthy Seattle team should be the NFC’s top seed. Arizona is a good bounce back candidate after finishing in the top 10 in total offense and total defense last season but missing the playoffs. The Rams will improve in year one of the Sean McVay era, but still have a long way to go and San Francisco will be in the running for the first overall pick all year long.

AFC East:

(1)  New England Patriots: 14-2

Miami Dolphins: 8-8

Buffalo Bills: 5-11

New York Jets: 2-14

Analysis: Another year, another uncontested AFC East title for the Patriots.  Many feel New England could flirt with perfection and the Pats should wrap up this division by late November. Miami quietly won 10 games and got to the playoffs last year. But the loss of Vance Joseph to Denver could cause its defense to regress this season and we’ll see how Jay Cutler holds up filling in for Ryan Tannehill.

AFC North:

            (4) Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-6

                  Baltimore Ravens: 8-8

                  Cincinnati Bengals: 6-10

                  Cleveland Browns: 5-11

Analysis: This division should be a two-horse race between two bitter rivals. Pittsburgh is far superior to Baltimore offensively and made efforts to bolster its defense with the recent signing of Joe Haden and spending a first-round pick on T.J. Watt. The Ravens are always in the mix, and this year is likely no exception, but they lack the appropriate playmakers on offense to hang with the Steelers. Maybe this will finally be the year Cincinnati fires Marvin Lewis while the youth movement continues in Cleveland.

AFC South:

            (3) Tennessee Titans: 11-5

            (5) Houston Texans: 10-6

                  Indianapolis Colts: 7-9

                  Jacksonville Jaguars: 4-12

Analysis: Tennessee was in contention for this division in 2016 until Marcus Mariota went down with the season-ending injury late in the year. With Mariota healthy, one of the league’s best rushing attacks and added weapons for Mariota to hook up with in the passing game, the Titans are the best team in the AFC South and will be one of the league’s best offenses. There are concerns about Tennessee’s secondary, which will likely limit its ceiling, but the Titans will still win this division. Houston has a talented roster, but its quarterback play remains a question mark entering the season. Nevertheless, the Texans are good enough to make the playoffs which would be a great story for the NFL after Hurricane Harvey. Indianapolis will start the year without Andrew Luck and the rest of its roster still has glaring holes, and the Jaguars remain the Jaguars.

AFC West:

(2)  Oakland Raiders: 12-4

(6)  Los Angeles Chargers: 9-7

       Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8

       Denver Broncos: 7-9

Analysis: This is the year the Raiders take over in the AFC West. Oakland has slowly built up a promising young nucleus and a high-powered offense. There are question marks about the team’s linebackers, but the Raiders did address a glaring weakness in the secondary spending their first two draft picks on defensive backs to go with young safety Karl Joseph and veteran Reggie Nelson. The Chargers have enough talent to make the playoffs and will if they stay healthy.  However, second-round pick Forrest Lamp is already out for the year and first-round pick Mike Williams started camp on the PUP list and could be limited all season. However, if they can get a full year with Keenan Allen, Jason Verrett and Joey Bosa, they could play into January. Kansas City falls back here due to the Chargers’ ascension while quarterback questions will continue to limit Denver’s ceiling.

AP Awards:

MVP and Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers

Defensive Player of the Year: Earl Thomas

Coach of the Year: Anthony Lynn

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Joe Mixon

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Myles Garrett

Comeback Player of the Year: Marshawn Lynch

Playoffs:

Wild Card Weekend:

NFC

(3)  New York Giants over (6) Arizona Cardinals

(5)  Dallas Cowboys over (4) Carolina Panthers

AFC

            (3) Tennessee Titans over (6) Los Angeles Chargers

            (4) Pittsburgh Steelers over (5) Houston Texans

Divisional Weekend:

NFC

            (1) Seattle Seahawks over (5) Dallas Cowboys

(3) New York Giants over (2) Green Bay Packers

AFC

            (1) New England Patriots over (4) Pittsburgh Steelers

           

            (2) Oakland Raiders over (3) Tennessee Titans

Championship Weekend:

NFC

            (1) Seattle Seahawks over (3) New York Giants

AFC

            (2) Oakland Raiders over (1) New England Patriots

Super Bowl LII:

Oakland Raiders over Seattle Seahawks

Light at the end of the tunnel for struggling Phillies

To say the least, this season has been largely disappointing for the Philadelphia Phillies. Entering the year, no one had expectations much beyond 75-80 wins, but the consensus seemed to be that the worst days of the franchise’s rebuilding effort were in the past. That belief was quickly dismissed early in the season. The Phillies had the worst record in baseball by Memorial Day and looked every bit the part of a team that was on pace to lose well over 100 games.

Fast forward three months and the team still has the worst record in baseball and is still on pace to lose over 100 games. While it sounds difficult to watch a team that bad on a regular basis, anyone that’s done so this summer would realize the silver linings in an otherwise dreadful season. Starting at the top of the order, second baseman Cesar Hernandez is following up a strong 2016 campaign with another good season this year as the Phillies’ leadoff man. Hernandez missed a little over a month with an oblique injury earlier this season, but in 94 games so far, Hernandez has career highs in slugging percentage and OPS. This, coming off a season in which he had career highs in batting average and on-base percentage in 2016, hitting .294 while sporting a .371 OBP. With second baseman and 2015 second-round pick Scott Kingery knocking on the door for a big-league promotion at AAA Lehigh Valley, Hernandez is an interesting trade chip for the Phillies in the offseason.

Prior to hitting the disabled list recently with a hamstring injury, much-maligned outfielder Odubel Herrera was on a tear. Herrera slashed .321/.351/.519 in June, only to follow it up by slashing .360/.415/.651 in July and prior to his injury he was at .360/.418/.580 for August. In the first two months of the season, Herrera looked like he had clearly regressed after having a productive 2016. On the mound, the Phillies’ most promising young starter Aaron Nola got off to a rough start. But the LSU product rebounded by going 3-2 with a 3.24 ERA and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings in June. He then had his best month in July posting a 3-1 record with a 1.32 ERA and 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings.

In addition to the resurgence of players like Herrera and Nola, who were expected to be key cogs for the Phillies all season, there have been more reasons for optimism after seeing the early results from some of the prospects that have been called up to the big leagues. Outfielder Nick Williams was called up almost two months ago and looks to fit the profile of a regular corner outfielder. While Williams has played center field with Herrera on the shelf, his bat and arm make him a natural fit in right. The 2012 second-round pick of the Texas Rangers came over in the Cole Hamels trade and his.293 batting average in 47 major league games this year is certainly encouraging. Though, what’s stood out the most in his time with the Phillies is Williams’ willingness to take walks. His major league walk rate is at 7.7 percent which is by far the highest it has been at any level within the Phillies organization. Catcher Jorge Alfaro was another big get for the Phillies in the Hamels trade. Alfaro has only appeared in nine big league games, and certainly must cut down on his free-swinging approach. However, he’s shown the makings of a strong offensive catcher with a big arm behind the plate which is exactly what everyone thought the Phillies were getting two years ago.

                                                       Matt Slocum/Associated Press
Williams and Hoskins have many fans believing they'll be
the Phillies' three and four hitters for many years to come.

Another recent call up has probably generated the most buzz amongst the fan base. First baseman and temporary left fielder Rhys Hoskins has eight home runs and 19 RBIs in his first 15 games. He’s the only player in MLB history to post such numbers in his first 15 games and figures to be a mainstay in the middle of the lineup for the Phillies for many years to come. Hoskins has been playing left field with Tommy Joseph likely holding things down at first base for the remainder of 2017, but it appears to be only a matter of time before the organization hands things over to Hoskins as the everyday first baseman.

One player who has not yet gotten the call to the show but appears to be getting closer by the day is shortstop J.P. Crawford. For years, Crawford was the top prospect in the Phillies’ organization. However, his putrid start to the AAA season with Lehigh Valley sparked questions about just how good he could be in the majors. Crawford has since returned to form in July and August and should get a look with the big club in September.

Despite some positive signs over the last three months, there are still plenty of questions left to be answered. One player who has been unable to turn things around is third baseman Maikel Franco. Franco had an underwhelming 2016 and has been even worse this season. He will almost certainly be given all of 2018 to figure it out, but Franco’s organizational arrow has been pointing in the wrong direction for quite some time. Franco’s downward trend after a strong rookie year in 2015 is reason to remember that the sample size for other young players in the lineup right now is still miniscule.

Manager Pete Mackanin has made some questionable lineup decisions. The Phillies have lost 31 games by one run. The Texas Rangers, the next closest team, has lost 21 games by one run. Losing that many close games isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for any manager. The front office still has a lot to prove. President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail and General Manager Matt Klentak are wrapping up their second season running the Phillies. The aforementioned young players that fans hope will be a part of the next contender the Phillies field were all acquired by former GM Ruben Amaro Jr. MacPhail and Klentak have stressed the need to add pitching depth at all levels of the organization. Currently in the majors, the Phillies lack consistent starting pitching after Nola and the bullpen always seems to make things interesting when given a lead.  

With the Chicago Cubs in Philadelphia this weekend, it won’t be a surprise to anyone if the losses continue to pile up for the Phillies. They’ll have to at least go 17-19 in their final 36 games to avoid 100 losses which seems unlikely.  But, the last three months have been an indication that it might not all be gloom and doom for the Phillies and there should be brighter days ahead.