World Series Preview

Another baseball season is coming to an end. Here is my breakdown of this year’s World Series between the New York Mets and the Kansas City Royals.

Hitting: Kansas City was unquestionably the stronger offensive team in the  regular season. The Royals had the third highest team batting average in the majors at .269. The Mets were 28^th in batting in the regular season.  Kansas City finished seventh in runs scored while the Mets were 17^th. But none of that really matters right now. In the playoffs, it’s all about timely hitting and the Mets have been getting plenty of that particularly from second baseman Daniel Murphy and the acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes at the trade deadline gave the Mets lineup some much needed pop in the lineup.  However, the Royals have been equally as capapable offensively in the postseason as they were in the regular season having scored 63 runs in 11 postseason games and hitting .271 collecitvely in the playoffs.  With Kansas City, there may not be that one imposing bat, but if you include last postseason, whether it’s Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, or really anyone in the lineup, many players are capable of getting a clutch hit.

Advantage: Royals

Pitching: This might seem obvious. But it’s not. Yes, Jacob DeGrom, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard have been terrific for New York. Steven Matz has been more than adequate as a four man in the postseason.  Jeurys Familia is perfect on five save opportunities thus far in October. The one weakness for the Mets when it comes to pitching is their middle relief but with the starters going at least six innings seemingly every night, they’ve been able to get away with it, and I wouldn’t expect that to change now. But, the Roylas pitchers are capable of matching the Mets starters pitch for pitch.  Edinson Volquez proved his worth in the opening game of the ALCS against a lethal Toronto lineup. Johnny Cueto has won two of his three postseason starts and was the Royals primary target at the trade deadline for this very reason.  Yordano Ventura has won all three of his postseason starts and has not allowed more than three runs in the process. Wade Davis has filled in admirably as the closer since Greg Holland was lost  for the season. This is closer than you think.

Advantage: Mets

Intagibles: The Mets have been playing with house money this offseason and we’ve seen where that’s gotten them.  In a sense, New York’s run to the Fall Classic is similar to Kansas City’s last year. The Royals weren’t expected to contend for a championship last season, much less a playoff spot, won a crazy wild card game against Oakland and took off them there all the way to game seven of the World Series where they ran into Madison Bumgarner. Most experts took the Washington Nationals in the NL East this year and many believed the Nationals could be the team representating the National League in the World Series. Yet, here are the Mets, four wins away from their third World Series title in  franchise history and first in 29 years.  For once, there are expectations for Kansas City. The Royals nearly bowed out in the ALDS as Houston blew a four-run lead in the eighth inning up two games to one on the defending American League champions.  Can the Royals prove to just be the better team the way they did in the ALCS against Toronto or will the Mets run of destiny continue? The ladder seems more likely.

Advantage: Mets

Prediction: Mets in 6

Ranting on a Major League Baseball injustice

The postseason “begins” tonight in Major League Baseball.  You’ll notice I put begins in quotation marks. The New York Yankees host the Houston Astros in the American League Wild Card game. Tomorrow night the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Chicago Cubs in the National League Wild Card game. In 2012, Major League Baseball began using two wild cards in the postseason and having a one-game round between the two wild cards for the right to advance to the division series.

If you ask me, this is one of the worst rules in sports. The playoffs, as I know them in Major League Baseball, are four teams in each league. There are three division winners and a wild card. It’s one thing to play 162 games and finish tied with another team. Then you play a tiebreaker. This wild card game has created a one-game playoff scenario that breaks ties that never existed.

The New York Yankees played the entire season and finished one game better than the Houston Astros. Before 2012, that would have had the Yankees in the postseason and the Astros home watching. Now, you might as well forget that the previous 162 games even happened because all that matters is one game. The only thing the Yankees won by having a better record than the Houston Astros was home field advantage for one game, which in baseball doesn’t mean much.

There is a reason why in baseball, more so than other professional sports, teams celebrate clinching playoff berths. It’s a big deal. After all 30 teams play 162 games, if your team is one that gets to play well into October when two-thirds of the league is sent home, it’s worth celebrating over. But in cases like the Yankees and Pirates? Despite being the two teams that traditionally would have been baseball’s only wild cards, now all it means is a chance to play one extra game.

On top of that, both the Yankees and Pirates may be up against the respective Cy Young winners in their leagues. Tonight, the Yankees face 20-game winner Dallas Keuchel of Houston. While the AL Cy Young winner could very well wind up being Toronto’s David Price, Keuchel had a season that will get him recognized and shouldn’t finish behind any other pitcher besides Price in the voting. The Pirates face baseball’s hottest pitcher in Chicago’s Jake Arietta who seems to have the upper hand on the Los Angeles Dodgers duo of Zack Grienke and Clayton Kershaw in the NL Cy Young race.

While proponents of the second wild card will point to the San Francisco Giants from last year as the second wild card in the National League to win their third World Series title in five seasons, it’s not adding up for me. In one game in baseball, any team can beat any other team. So for a team to fight all season to earn baseball’s first wild card only to be rewarded with home field advantage in a one game scenario isn’t enough for me. It’s easy for me to say just go back to the old way where there is only one wild card. I would be fine with that.

But my scenario, which could appease both sides to this issue, would be to play a best-of-three series in which the first wild card hosts all three games. It would be like any other three-game series in the regular season where all the games are played at the same location. That, to me, would be an ample reward for the first wild card team and allow for a second wild card. The second wild card should have to win two games on the road, not just steal one and then get to go home and close the series out. So Rob Manfred, in case you’re reading this, that’s my proposal. For Yankee fans and Pirate fans, if your seasons end tonight and tomorrow night, I’m sorry.

Reality Check for Chip Kelly

If you know me, or have read some of my posts on this blog regarding Chip Kelly, you’ll know I have been fascinated and enamored by the way he does things. Going back to his days at the University of Oregon, I’ve always enjoyed watching his teams play football. When the Eagles hired him on January 16, 2013, I believed it was the right move and that he’d bring a lot of innovative strategies to the NFL and have success unlike other college coaches that tried to take the next step to the pros.

                                                    Brett Davis/USA Today Sports

Despite a collapse at the end of the 2014 season, I thought beginning his tenure in the NFL with two 10-6 seasons and an NFC East division title was a good start for Kelly. Then the craziness began. The Eagles handed Kelly the personnel department and exiled Howie Roseman. Kelly gutted the roster and remade things his way.

Questions arose about Kelly’s readiness to run an NFL franchise despite just two seasons as a head coach and no playoff wins. I hung in, willing to see his project through. Once the summer hit and the season was getting closer, I felt confident that the 2015 Eagles were going to be the best of Kelly’s three teams so far.  Many pundits predicted the Eagles would find their way back into the postseason and make some noise once they got there.

Yet here we are just two weeks into the season and it feels like it’s over.  The up-tempo offense that is synonymous with Kelly could not get anything going for six out of the season’s first eight quarters. This was against two defenses in Atlanta and Dallas that are just mediocre at best.  On Sunday, the Eagles head to MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets, one of the NFL’s best defenses.

This is without a doubt the most adversity Kelly has faced in his coaching career. Skeptics of his offseason overhaul are speaking out even louder. Reports surfaced about the Eagles offense being too predictable and the Dallas defense knowing where certain running plays were going.  There’s no one else Kelly can look at and blame for the horrendous and lifeless 0-2 start the Eagles have had. The reality is these are his guys. He got to do this his way and right now his way isn’t working.

For a coach that makes plenty of snide remarks in press conferences, doesn’t seem to care about what others think of him, and seems pretty set in his ways about how he’s going to do things, this is quite a reality check.  It’s easy to just say back to the drawing table, change things up and make the appropriate adjustments. But that’s not the kind of guy Kelly is.  He believes in his way and no other way.

Now, even more so than last December when the Eagles collapsed, Chip Kelly’s way is being put to the test. The way in which he coaches and the way in which he runs a football team from a personnel standpoint. He took a lot of risks on injury prone players in the offseason.  Kiko Alonso, who he traded LeSean McCoy for, is already hurt and the timetable for his return is unclear. There’s no reason to think the Eagles offense is going to get on track and the toughest defense it will face all year on Sunday. This is a trying time for Chip Kelly, and he needs to respond because if not, this is going to get a whole lot worse.

Photo:

http://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/chip_kelly_surly_with_media_over_questions_about_poor_play_qb/s1_8061_19590559

2015 NFL Season Predictions

We are less than 48 hours away from the season kicking off so time for some predictions. Numbers after record, if applicable, are team’s playoff seed.

NFC East

PHI (12-4)-2

DAL (9-7)

NYG (8-8)

WSH (3-13)

Analysis: The Eagles are the most well rounded team in this division.  Chip Kelly’s offseason raised eyebrows across the country but his moves improved the Eagles roster and will have them back at the top of the NFC East.  The Cowboys cannot put any running back behind that offensive line, will not go 8-0 on the road again like they did last season, and still have a very suspect defense.   The multitude of weapons the Giants have on offense will keep them at .500 while the NFL’s biggest soap opera will continue in the nation’s capital.

NFC North

GB (11-5)-3

MIN (10-6)-6

DET (8-8)

CHI (5-11)

Analysis: Green Bay is going to be there every year it seems like.  Jordy Nelson’s injury doesn’t help but there’s no one in the division that can knock them off yet.  Minnesota is coming though.  A 7-9 year given expectations without Adrian Peterson in 2014 was pretty good.  Now with Adrian Peterson back and Teddy Bridgewater coming off a solid rookie season, they’ll take the next step into the playoffs.  Detroit is like the Giants.  They’ll score points and have some exciting plays, but their defense will hold them back.  Chicago is a train wreck that is going nowhere fast.

NFC South

CAR (9-7)-4

ATL (8-8)

NO (8-8)

TB (6-10)

Analysis: This will be the worst division in football, as I believe it’s a race to nine.  Despite no Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina will do just enough to sneak by.  Atlanta and New Orleans define mediocre.  Tampa will be better and it will be interesting to see what kind of rookie season is in store for Jameis Winston.

NFC West

SEA (13-3)-1

ARZ (11-5)-5

STL (8-8)

SF (4-12)

Analysis: Seattle will not suffer any Super Bowl hangover.  The addition of Jimmy Graham helped its offense immensely and the defense is still special.  Arizona also has a talented defense and with Carson Palmer at full health will be the NFC’s first wild card.  St. Louis has a nice defense and figures to run the ball a lot but won’t win enough games to be a factor in the playoff hunt.  San Francisco had a nightmare of an offseason and is bound to struggle.

AFC East

NE (11-5)-3

MIA (11-5)- 5

BUF (9-7)

NYJ (7-9)

Analysis: Tom Brady is playing week one if you didn’t know.  His suspension being nullified puts the defending Super Bowl champs back on top in the AFC East although Miami is coming with a good defense and some young talent on offense.  Buffalo and the Jets have stellar defenses but neither is good enough on offense to crack the postseason.

AFC North

BAL (12-4)-2

PIT (10-6)

CIN (10-6)

CLE (5-11)

Analysis: Baltimore is another team, like Green Bay, that you always expect in the thick of things come December.  Mark Trestman will help the offense score more and the defense is still good.  Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will certainly be in the playoff mix but ultimately both left.  Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t good enough and Andy Dalton remains too mediocre for Cincinnati to make the playoffs.  Cleveland fans are in for a long year but at least the Cavs start in less than two months.

AFC South

IND (13-3)-1

HOU (9-7)

JAX (6-10)

TEN (3-13)

Analysis: If it weren’t for Indy, then this is by far the worst division in football.  But, the Colts are a super bowl contender and have an incredible offense.  Houston’s defense is top notch and DeAndre Hopkins is a nice talent.  Arian Foster’s return could be earlier than expected so Houston will go over .500 for the second year in a row after just two wins in 2013.  Jacksonville won’t be a laughingstock, as quarterback Blake Bortles will improve and there’s some young talent on offense.  Tennessee might have its franchise quarterback, but still has a terrible roster.

AFC West

DEN (11-5)-4

SD (10-6)-6

KC (9-7)

OAK (7-9)

Analysis: Like this division.  Denver is still going to be there, despite Peyton Manning another year older.  The Broncos have a strong defense they can rely on this season.  San Diego will be able to run the ball a ton with its first-round pick Melvin Gordon, and will play ball control on its way to the playoffs.  Kansas City will be close, Jeremy Maclin helps the offense immensely and the defense is very good, but the Chiefs will fall short.  Oakland is on the rise.  Despite a last-place finish they have some very nice young pieces to move forward with when you look at Derek Carr, Khalil Mack, and Amari Cooper.

Awards:

NFL MVP and Offensive Player of the Year: Andrew Luck (IND)

Defensive Player of the Year: JJ Watt (HOU)

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Melvin Gordon (SD)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Leonard Williams (NYJ)

Coach of the Year: Mike Zimmer (MIN)

Playoffs

Wild Card Weekend

NFC (3) GB over (6) MIN

         (5) ARZ over (4) CAR

AFC (3) NE over (6) SD

         (5) MIA over (4) DEN

Divisional Weekend

NFC (1) SEA over (5) ARZ

          (2) PHI over (3) GB

AFC (1) IND over (5) MIA

         (2) BAL over (3) NE

Championship Sunday

NFC Championship- (1) SEA over (2) PHI

AFC Championship- (1) IND over (2) BAL

Super Bowl L- (1) SEA over (1) IND

10 Random College Football Thoughts

There are 10 days until the college football season kicks off on September 3.  So I decided to give 10 quick thoughts on the upcoming season like I did a year ago.

1.     I think TCU isn’t going to be denied this season and will win the National Championship.  The Horned Frogs won their last game of the regular season 55-3 but were left out of the party a year ago as Ohio State stole the last playoff spot.  This season, TCU does not play a preseason top 25 team until November 21.  While a showdown with Baylor in the regular season finale looms, no one’s stopping the Horned Frogs from making this season’s playoff.

2.     I think it doesn’t matter who starts at quarterback for Ohio State.  It’s an obviously hot topic of discussion entering the season but whether it’s JT Barrett or Cardale Jones won’t matter big picture.  The Buckeyes roster is loaded.

3.     I think Wisconsin’s Corey Clement is going to win the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s top running back.  As a backup to Melvin Gordon a year ago, Clement ran for 949 yards on 6.5 yards per carry.  As the volume increases, the yards will explode and Clement will be the next great Wisconsin running back.

4.     I think Michigan State’s Connor Cook throws for 4,000 yards. I promise I’ll stop thinking about the Big 10 after this but I think Cook’s in for a big year with the backfield in East Lansing unproven.

5.     I think Ole Miss is going to make the playoff.  Perhaps the boldest one of my thoughts but there are a lot of elite college football players at Ole Miss like wide receiver Laquon Treadwell and defensive linemen Robert Nkemdiche. A week three upset at Alabama will get this group of Rebels off and running.

6.     I think Oregon finishes the year unranked.  The Ducks have some difficult road Pac-12 games and also has to travel to Michigan State early in the season so I see a down year for the Ducks. USC is the best team in the Pac-12 in my opinion.

                           Cooper Neill/Getty Images

7.     I think Florida’s Vernon Hargreaves III is the best defensive player in the country.  A very fluid corner that makes things look easy with his speed.  Hargreaves led the SEC in pass breakups last season as a sophomore and is only getting better.  Gators fans should enjoy him before he starts playing on Sundays.

8.     I think LSU’s Leonard Fournette leads the SEC in rushing.  I’ll take him over Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Keep an eye on Alex Collins at Arkansas with Jonathan Williams out for the year but Fournette leads the way on the ground in the best conference in America.

9.     I think Laquon Treadwell wins the Fred Biletnikoff award as the nation's top receiver. He’s a big reason why my fifth thought exists.

10.  I think TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin (right) wins the Heisman.  I’m buying the TCU hype and I love their dual-threat signal caller.  His senior season will be special.

Photo: http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/aKEt17SN8OU/Minnesota+v+TCU/L0lWLWnwzWB/Trevone+Boykin