Wednesday, June 4, 2014

2014 Stanley Cup Final Preview


It’s been a long and arduous journey to the Stanley Cup Final for both the New York Rangers and the Los Angeles Kings.  The Rangers went seven games in the first round against the Philadelphia Flyers, seven more in the second round against the Pittsburgh Penguins, and it took six for them to clinch their first trip to the Stanley Cup Final in 20 years in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Montreal Canadiens.  The Kings went the distance in all three of their Western Conference series against the Sharks, Ducks, and Blackhawks respectively.  So it’s only fitting that the marathons for both teams culminates with a series against each other for Lord Stanley’s Cup.

                                  Bruce Bennett/Getty Images
Jonathan Quick poses with the 2012 Conn Smythe Trophy.
  He has more help offensively this time around.
Forwards: Until 2012, the Kings were always plagued by lack of goal scoring.  Without lots of offensive depth there wasn’t much help for Jonathan Quick between the pipes.  While the Kings did win the Cup two years ago, offensively they’re much improved now.  Los Angeles leads all playoff teams in goals a game with about 3.5 and they’ve really needed improved goal scoring to get to this point considering the teams they played in the Western Conference playoffs all have capable forwards as well.  The addition of Marian Gaborik, emergence of “That 70s Line” with Jeff Carter, Tanner Pearson, and Tyler Toffoli , to go with established forwards like Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, Justin Williams, and Mike Richards gives LA lots of reliable options up front.  Kopitar, Carter, Gaborik, and Williams are all in the top five in points for the playoffs.  It’s not the same for the Rangers when it comes to scoring goals.  Only six of their 20 playoff games have the Rangers scored more than three goals and one of those was a 7-4 loss to Montreal in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals.  Martin St. Louis had a nice series against Montreal but they’ll need some consistent offense from other top forwards like Brad Richards and Rick Nash as well as some secondary scoring from guys like Derek Stepan, Benoit Pouliot, and Derek Brassard. But LA, is without question filled with some more offensive depth.

Advantage: Kings

                                                                          Getty Images  
Ryan McDonagh is the leader on a defensive
           that has been phenomenal for the Rangers.                
Defense: Drew Doughty has played close to 28 minutes a game for LA in the playoffs.  Alec Martinez had the game-winning goal in the seventh game against Chicago in the Western Conference Final.   Jake Muzzin and Slava Voynov have stepped up throughout the playoffs adding depth to a back end that Matt Greene and Willie Mitchell have been solidifying the last couple of years.  However, defense and the Rangers are synonymous.  I feel that it’s almost an indictment on John Tortorella is see the Rangers in the Stanley Cup Final, where he could never get to, playing a similar defense first block lots of shots style of hockey.  Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi, and Mark Staal lead the way on the Rangers blue line but the Rangers are so good defensively not necessarily because of personnel but their style of hockey is very defensive-minded which is part of the reason they’re second in average goals against in the playoffs at 2.25.  Doughty’s better than any
defenseman on the Rangers, but everyone buys in to playing defense for New York.

Advantage: Rangers

                                                           Justin K. Aller/Getty Images
The 2012 Vezina Trophy winner Henrik Lundqvist will have to
carry the Rangers in the Stanley Cup Final if they're going to win.
Goaltending: The two best goalies in the National Hockey League.  Henrik Lundqvist and Jonathan Quick.  Lundqvist has been magnificent, with the exception of Game Five against Montreal, in the playoffs.  
Statiscally Lundqvist’s numbers have been better in the playoffs but I wouldn’t read into that too much.  Los Angeles faced three teams that can really score in their three series in the Western Conference and as I mentioned previously defensively, the Rangers are a better hockey team.  Quick carried that Kings team in 2012 to the Cup.  In 2012, the Kings weren’t as polished of an overall hockey team as they are now, which explains why the Kings were eighth in the West, and so they had to rely on Quick more.  Just because I believe this group for LA is better than the 2012 team doesn’t mean that Quick has gotten any worse.  It’s obvious Lundqvist is the primary reason the Rangers are where they are, but Quick’s equally as capable.

Advantage: Even

                                                             Bruce Bennett/Getty Images
Drew Doughty's offensive prowess for a defenseman makes him a
great power play point man as LA's power play has been clicking.
Special Teams: The LA power play has been firing on all cylinders in the playoffs as they’re converting at above a 25% rate and went six-for-19 in the Western Conference Final.  As I mentioned earlier the improved scoring of LA, plus quarterback like Drew Doughty on the blue line goes a long way for a power play.  The Rangers power play has not been nearly as efficient in the playoffs as they’ve been successful only about 13% of the time and they went into a serious drought on the power play towards the end of their series against the Flyers and into their series against Pittsburgh which was a big reason they got down 3-1 against the Penguins because they struggled to score a man up.  Though that defense first style of the Rangers makes it no surprise they have the second best penalty kill in the playoffs having successfully killed off about 86% of the penalties they’ve taken.  While LA’s penalty kill has been good, it’s not up to par with the Rangers.

Advantage: Even

Coaching: Darryl Sutter has done a great job in Los Angeles.  He took over midseason in 2011-2012 and we know by now the Kings won their first Stanley Cup in franchise history that season.  The Kings appeared in the Western Conference Finals last season and are now back in the Stanley Cup Final.  Sutter has been able to get the Kings to that next level from just another playoff team to serious contender.  The jury is out on Alain Vigneault and playoff success.  He never had much of it in Montreal in the late 90s, failed numerous times in Vancouver and the one time he reached the Stanley Cup Final before as a coach his Canucks were thoroughly outplayed in a seventh game at home by the Boston Bruins.  He’s done great in New York in his first season, but can he finish the job?

Advantage: Kings


Prediction: The Rangers did catch a few breaks en route to the Stanley Cup Final.  The Flyers were without Steve Mason for the first three games of the first round, which the Rangers won two of.  Montreal lost Carey Price early on in the Eastern Conference Final.  The Kings went through three grueling seven game series and went through the defending champions in the Western Conference Final to get here.  I believe the Kings and the Blackhawks are the NHL’s best two teams.  The games in this series will be close because of how good the Rangers are defensively and how good Henrik Lundqvist is.  But I don’t see enough offense for the Rangers to win the cup.  Kings in 5.

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