It’s no secret that the baseball hall of fame is the hardest
hall of fame in sports to earn induction into. However, that’s not an excuse to
leave certain players out whose resumes are just as good if not better than
those who already have plaques in Cooperstown. For years, the name at the
forefront of the notable exclusions discussion was Tim Raines. Now, in his
final year of eligibility with the Baseball Writers Association of America,
Raines is set to be inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame this
weekend after his name appeared on 86 percent of ballots back in January when
the election was held.
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Lou Brock is a distant second to Henderson on the all-time
stolen bases list with 938. Brock was a first-ballot selection in 1985. On election
day this year, Spaeder compared career statistics of Raines, who was nicknamed “Rock”,
and Brock using a combination of common baseball statistics and some of the
advanced statistics. Here is what Spaeder came up with:
Regardless of how much weight voters placed in the advanced
statistics, Raines had an advantage over Brock using several of the sport’s everyday
statistics. Brock’s name appeared on 79.7 percent of ballots in 1985 to safely
clear the required 75 percent threshold. Raines’ first year of eligibility came in 2008
and he only received 24.3 percent of the vote. So, what caused Raines to sweat
it out until his final year on the ballot?
Seven-year peak is another statistic that is often factored
into a player’s hall of fame case. Raines had a stretch of seven straight all-star
appearances from 1981-87, which was still prior to the steroid era. Some
players, namely Fred McGriff, can claim their careers were overshadowed by the
steroid era, but it’s difficult to make that argument for Raines. Playing in
the same era as Rickey Henderson though, surely hurt Raines. Henderson is the gold
standard of leadoff hitters and therefore any other player with the same
profile was going to be hurt by playing at the same time. Conversely, Brock’s
career ending just as Raines and Henderson were getting started certainly had
to work in Brock’s favor.
It’s hard not to think there was some location bias that
worked against Raines too. The Expos have been defunct since 2004 and it’s not
exactly going out on a limb to say Montreal isn’t a baseball market. Hall of
Famer Andre Dawson, a longtime teammate of Raines in Montreal, had to wait
until his penultimate year of eligibility with the BBWAA before being inducted
in 2010. Location is likely another
variable Brock had in his favor playing the bulk of his career with the Cardinals
in St. Louis, arguably the biggest baseball market in the United States.
The growth of analytics likely got Raines over the top. As sabermetrics
became more popular in front offices and in the media, it had to be easier for
voters to give Raines the nod. Nevertheless, it’s preposterous to think about
just how low Raines’ voting percentage was in 2008. It’s a yes or no question
for each player every year and for Tim Raines, the answer was always yes.
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