Evaluating the Eagles at the bye

The NFL trade deadline was yesterday and Eagles executive vice president of football operations Howie Roseman did not go quietly acquiring wide receiver Golden Tate from Detroit for a third-round draft pick. The trade deadline coincided with the Eagles bye week which came exactly halfway through 2018, so there’s no better time to look back at how things have gone and look ahead and what’s to come than right now.

With eight games down and eight games to go, the Eagles sit at 4-4. If losses to Tampa Bay and Tennessee raised red flags, then blowing a 17-point lead at home against Carolina started to sound alarms. The previously reliable offensive line was struggling to protect Carson Wentz upon his return in week three against Indianapolis. Defensive backs were getting burned left and right. The offensive play calling got too pass-happy. The competency of yet another defensive coordinator was called into question. Injuries started to pile up. In other words, not much was going right.

Fortunately, the New York Giants and a team in disarray quarterbacked by Blake Bortles popped up on the schedule at just the right times. A blowout victory over the anemic Giants followed a loss to the Minnesota Vikings in an NFC Championship rematch and Bortles was just what the doctor ordered for a defense that blew a 17-point lead the previous week against Cam Newton and Carolina.

While there’s certainly been more bad than good in the first eight weeks, it’s not all gloom and doom for the defending Super Bowl champions. The defense has been widely criticized for its soft coverages late in games with leads. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has been ultra-conservative late which often led to teams methodically marching down the field and allowed Carolina to get all the way back. But they still had to earn the lead to begin with and the Eagles dominated a 5-2 Carolina team for three quarters without allowing a point. Wentz’s numbers have managed to improve from last year when he looked destined to be the MVP. Alshon Jeffery returned from a torn rotator cuff in week four and has looked every bit the part of the number one receiver the Eagles signed him to be in March 2017.

                                               Lynne Sladky/Associated Press
Tate gives the Eagles a much-needed
additional playmaker on offense.

With running back Jay Ajayi, defensive end Derek Barnett and safety Rodney McLeod all out for the year, not much consistency at wide receiver beyond Jeffery and struggling cornerbacks, Roseman had to do something yesterday. But, he obviously wasn’t going to be able to fix it all. Trading for Tate probably made the most sense. Realistically, more than one move from the Eagles yesterday would have been asking a lot. The NFL trade deadline is usually relatively quiet compared to other sports. Therefore, getting help for your franchise quarterback was the move to make. The offensive line was not as problematic last season. The defense wasn’t blowing as many leads last season.  Banking on some positive regression while upgrading a position that the team was thin at was the logical conclusion for Roseman.

Moving forward, it’s fair to assume the Eagles still have their best football ahead of them. For as bad as the first half of the season seemed at times, they’re still in second place in a lackluster NFC East. The week 17 game at Washington may decide the division.  That’s one of five NFC East games the Eagles still have left to play. With some improvement on the offensive line, in the fourth quarter overall and situationally from coach Doug Pederson, the division can still be won. But how far things will go beyond that remain to be seen. Upcoming road games against the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams will be very telling. It was a bumpy ride in the first two months of the season, and as long as it’s a little less bumpy in the second half, they’ll be back playing at Lincoln Financial Field in January.

Photo: https://www.nj.com/sports/index.ssf/2018/10/golden_tate_to_eagles_heres_the_nfls_reaction.html

Four best teams left standing in October

Attendance is down in Major League Baseball, as are television ratings. It’s likely always going to be a regional sport now. The best player in the game having played in only three playoff games in his entire career and his team not winning any of them isn’t helping things. Sure would be nice if the Angels could figure it out eventually. However, with the NLCS getting started tonight in Milwaukee, and the ALCS starting tomorrow in Boston, the teams still vying for championship are the best baseball has to offer. Regardless of what kind of interest there is in both of these series outside of the four home markets, avid baseball fans in other markets couldn’t have asked for better matchups.

The best statistic to determine talent level on a Major League Baseball roster is run differential. It doesn’t take brain surgery to figure out that the teams that are better than most at scoring more runs than they allow are probably good.  Considering how long a baseball regular season is, it’s safe to assume the teams with the best run differentials by the end of the year are probably the best teams. The Houston Astros crushed just about everyone this year with a +263 run differential to lead baseball. For most of the year, it looked like the Boston Red Sox were going to flirt with the regular season wins record as they posted a +229 run differential which was second best. The Los Angeles Dodgers incredible depth finally took over down the stretch and their run differential was third best at +194. Milwaukee was further down the list, but still in the top 10 at +93.

When it comes to successfully rebuilding in modern baseball, Houston is almost certainly going to be the first team mentioned. We’re living in a baseball age fueled by analytics and advanced statistics and the Astros are ahead of everyone else when it comes to using and developing such metrics to find competitive advantages. Houston’s analytical edge is obvious enough to those within the game to where players for the Cleveland Indians were admitting the deck was stacked against them from the start of their ALDS against the Astros. Houston’s roster is also loaded so when you put it all together, you’re going to win a lot of games. From a talent perspective, this year’s group of Houston Astros is better than last year’s and last season was of course the first World Series in franchise history for Houston. We might be talking dynasty in a couple weeks because Houston’s core is in place and doesn’t appear to be going anywhere.

Boston is built for long-term success as well with a slew of young players in its lineup headlined by likely AL MVP Mookie Betts. They also have some guy named Chris Sale anchoring the rotation. The analytical arms race was on full display last fall when the Red Sox hired Alex Cora as their manager away from his bench coach position with Houston. This was coming off of a season that ended with Boston losing in four games against Houston in the ALDS. The Red Sox also flexed their financial muscle a little in the offseason with the signing of slugger J.D. Martinez. What better way to make a run at the Astros than hiring their bench coach to be your manager and signing the biggest bat on the free agent market.  Boston and Houston are both improved from last year and it will be a treat for all baseball fans to see the two teams square off in a best of seven series rather than a best of five this time around.

What a weird year it was for the Dodgers in the NL West. After getting within one game of a championship last year, Los Angeles entered as the clear favorite in the division in 2018. But for most of the first half, the Dodgers were underachieving, though many of the underlying numbers, including run differential, indicated they were a good team. Even after several trades, most notably one with Baltimore to acquire Manny Machado, the Dodgers remained on the outside looking in. Questions began to arise if the Dodgers were possibly too deep. Baseball teams play practically every day and good players often need to get in routines and be prepared to be in the starting lineup almost every day. But this wasn’t the case with the Dodgers because of their extensive depth, there were always players on the bench that would start for almost every other team. Eventually, they chased down the Colorado Rockies and won a tiebreaker game at Dodger Stadium at the beginning of the month to clinch the division. After a victory over the young and upstart Atlanta Braves in four games in the NLDS, the Dodgers are back where everyone thought they would be.

                                             Jeff Hanisch - USA Today Sports

Lastly, there’s the Milwaukee Brewers. If you’re looking for a feel-good story to get behind, here’s your team. Overshadowed by the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals for most of this decade, the Brewers are in the postseason for just the second time in the last ten seasons. They’re the only team of the four remaining that has never won the World Series. They’ve challenged conventional wisdom often this year by “bullpenning” games. Manager Craig Counsell is as new-school as it gets and his decisions had a lot to do with the Brewers winning 96 games to lead the National League. Their lineup also features likely NL MVP Christian Yelich and centerfielder Lorenzo Cain and his on-base percentage close to .400.

I’m picking the Astros in 6 and the Brewers in 7. But, this isn’t about who I think will win. It’s about the best teams in each league left in races to win four games before the other can and earn an opportunity to play in the Fall Classic. The playoffs in all sports can be a crapshoot. On any given week, teams can go cold and if it’s at the wrong time, they’re on the couch watching the rest of the postseason just like the rest of us. But these four teams all avoided such slumps in the Division Series. Whatever happens next, and no matter how many people are watching, is sure to be a great showcase for modern baseball.

Photo: https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2018/07/03/yelich-returned-action-tuesday-and-cain-isnt-far-behind/752582002/