Attendance is down in Major League Baseball, as are
television ratings. It’s likely always going to be a regional sport now. The
best player in the game having played in only three playoff games in his entire
career and his team not winning any of them isn’t helping things. Sure would be
nice if the Angels could figure it out eventually. However, with the NLCS
getting started tonight in Milwaukee, and the ALCS starting tomorrow in Boston,
the teams still vying for championship are the best baseball has to offer.
Regardless of what kind of interest there is in both of these series outside of
the four home markets, avid baseball fans in other markets couldn’t have asked
for better matchups.
The best statistic to determine talent level on a Major
League Baseball roster is run differential. It doesn’t take brain surgery to
figure out that the teams that are better than most at scoring more runs than
they allow are probably good. Considering
how long a baseball regular season is, it’s safe to assume the teams with the
best run differentials by the end of the year are probably the best teams. The
Houston Astros crushed just about everyone this year with a +263 run
differential to lead baseball. For most of the year, it looked like the Boston
Red Sox were going to flirt with the regular season wins record as they posted
a +229 run differential which was second best. The Los Angeles Dodgers
incredible depth finally took over down the stretch and their run differential
was third best at +194. Milwaukee was further down the list, but still in the
top 10 at +93.
When it comes to successfully rebuilding in modern baseball,
Houston is almost certainly going to be the first team mentioned. We’re living
in a baseball age fueled by analytics and advanced statistics and the Astros
are ahead of everyone else when it comes to using and developing such metrics
to find competitive advantages. Houston’s analytical edge is obvious enough to
those within the game to where players for the Cleveland Indians were admitting
the deck was stacked against them from the start of their ALDS against the
Astros. Houston’s roster is also loaded so when you put it all together, you’re
going to win a lot of games. From a talent perspective, this year’s group of
Houston Astros is better than last year’s and last season was of course the
first World Series in franchise history for Houston. We might be talking
dynasty in a couple weeks because Houston’s core is in place and doesn’t appear
to be going anywhere.
Boston is built for long-term success as well with a slew of
young players in its lineup headlined by likely AL MVP Mookie Betts. They also
have some guy named Chris Sale anchoring the rotation. The analytical arms race
was on full display last fall when the Red Sox hired Alex Cora as their manager
away from his bench coach position with Houston. This was coming off of a
season that ended with Boston losing in four games against Houston in the ALDS.
The Red Sox also flexed their financial muscle a little in the offseason with
the signing of slugger J.D. Martinez. What better way to make a run at the
Astros than hiring their bench coach to be your manager and signing the biggest
bat on the free agent market. Boston and
Houston are both improved from last year and it will be a treat for all
baseball fans to see the two teams square off in a best of seven series rather
than a best of five this time around.
What a weird year it was for the Dodgers in the NL West.
After getting within one game of a championship last year, Los Angeles entered
as the clear favorite in the division in 2018. But for most of the first half,
the Dodgers were underachieving, though many of the underlying numbers, including
run differential, indicated they were a good team. Even after several trades,
most notably one with Baltimore to acquire Manny Machado, the Dodgers remained on
the outside looking in. Questions began to arise if the Dodgers were possibly too
deep. Baseball teams play practically every day and good players often need to
get in routines and be prepared to be in the starting lineup almost every day.
But this wasn’t the case with the Dodgers because of their extensive depth,
there were always players on the bench that would start for almost every other
team. Eventually, they chased down the Colorado Rockies and won a tiebreaker
game at Dodger Stadium at the beginning of the month to clinch the division. After
a victory over the young and upstart Atlanta Braves in four games in the NLDS,
the Dodgers are back where everyone thought they would be.
 |
| Jeff Hanisch - USA Today Sports |
Lastly, there’s the Milwaukee Brewers. If you’re looking for
a feel-good story to get behind, here’s your team. Overshadowed by the Chicago
Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals for most of this decade, the Brewers are in the
postseason for just the second time in the last ten seasons. They’re the only
team of the four remaining that has never won the World Series. They’ve
challenged conventional wisdom often this year by “bullpenning” games. Manager
Craig Counsell is as new-school as it gets and his decisions had a lot to do
with the Brewers winning 96 games to lead the National League. Their lineup
also features likely NL MVP Christian Yelich and centerfielder Lorenzo Cain and
his on-base percentage close to .400.
I’m picking the Astros in 6 and the Brewers in 7. But, this
isn’t about who I think will win. It’s about the best teams in each league left
in races to win four games before the other can and earn an opportunity to play
in the Fall Classic. The playoffs in all sports can be a crapshoot. On any
given week, teams can go cold and if it’s at the wrong time, they’re on the
couch watching the rest of the postseason just like the rest of us. But these
four teams all avoided such slumps in the Division Series. Whatever happens next,
and no matter how many people are watching, is sure to be a great showcase for
modern baseball.
No comments:
Post a Comment