Analysis and Projections
Point Guards
1.)
Dante Exum- Australia: Athletic, quick, slashes
to the basket relentlessly, good finisher around the rim. Biggest weakness would be his need to develop
a more consistent jump shot. Sounds like
Russell Westbrook right? Difference is Exum is three inches taller. If a team
with a decent point guard takes him merely because he’s the best player
available and decides to use him more as a combo guard then the improved jump
shot becomes even more important. But
he’ll reach his ceiling if he can make plays in the NBA as a true point guard. Top-five pick.
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| Associated Press Marcus Smart does a lot things well and could become a reliable NBA starting point guard down the road. |
2.)
Marcus Smart- Oklahoma State: Lot to like about
this guy. Does a lot of things well. To
name a few, penetrates and finishes, rebounds well for a guard, active hands in
passing lanes make him a great defender.
Just a great college basketball player. Needs to be in the right
situation to translate to the NBA. At 225 he’s bigger than lots of NBA point guards,
but at 6’4’’ he’s undersized for a two guard and his perimeter game isn’t good
enough. However his wide range of skills
makes him a lottery pick and he could wind up being a solid NBA starting point
guard.
3.)
Tyler Ennis- Syracuse: Ennis lacks an elite
scoring prowess and perimeter jumper and while he sees the floor well and makes
others around him better I don’t think there’s anything he’ll do on a
basketball court that makes people say wow.
He’s steady,consistent, and doesn’t turn it over which you like for a
point guard. I think he’s Andre
Miller. Miller and Ennis are both 6’2’’
and ironically Miller was picked 8th in the 1999 NBA Draft and many
are projecting Ennis to be a lottery pick.
Given his court vision and passing are his best assets and he prides
himself on making others better since he’ll likely be a lottery pick there may
not be a ton of talent on the team he gets drafted by and I think it’s
important for Ennis to be surrounded by talent.
We’ll see, but there’s some bust potential here.
4.)
Zach Lavine- UCLA: Like the size here for a
point guard. Maybe turns into more of a
combo guard in the NBA. Good leaper and
uses a good first-step on drives to get the hoop. But I think he could have used some more
seasoning at UCLA. Only played 24 minutes
a game as a Bruin so the team that drafts Lavine is banking on lots of
upside. Not the best passer either so
that’s a bit scary for teams looking at his as a point guard. But due to the upside, lottery to mid
first. Proceed with caution.
5.)
Elfrid Payton- Louisiana Lafayette: Could be a
first-round steal. Gets lots of steals
on the defensive end and is quick and a good passer on offense. Jumper needs work and needs to add weight but
if he were at a bigger school he’d be projected higher than mid-first round. Jrue Holiday went mid-first to the Sixers in
2009 and became an All Star. Payton will
be a nice pick for teams in the 15-23 range.
6.)
Shabazz Napier- UConn: Turns 23 in July so hurts
his stock. No one questions the
toughness and mental makeup and he’s a solid two-way player with good shooting
range and is a great rebounder for his 6’0’’ height. However, his lacks elite athleticism, can
play selfish at times, and is small.
Late first rounder. Backup point guard.
Wings
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| Getty Images There was a lot of hype around Andrew Wiggins coming out of high school, and whether or not you believe he lived up to it he has lots of potential at the next level as an NBA wing player. |
1.)
Andrew Wiggins- Kansas: The athleticism is off
the charts, the defense is exceptional, and the potential is through the
roof. Needs to bulk up and polish his
offensive game and become more aggressive because he’s at his best offensively
when he attacks the basket and doesn’t passively chill on the perimeter and
watch. But Wiggins has the most
potential out of any prospect in the draft.
Reminds me of Paul George with his athleticism and defense. Definite
top-five pick
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| USA Today Sports Parker was also very much hyped coming out of high school and shouldn't be one to shy away from the spotlight as the draft's most NBA ready player and Rookie of the Year favorite. |
2.)
Jabari Parker- Duke: Listed at 6’8’’ 241, Parker
could be used as power forward in the NBA.
Whether he’s plays small or power forward, one thing’s for sure, Parker
is the most NBA-ready player in this draft.
He can score from anywhere on the court and could be used as an
effective isolation player. So versatile
offensively. His defense will likely
need to improve but if Parker lands on a team in dire need of offense he’ll
fill it up. If you’re looking for
someone to come in right away and help an NBA franchise Parker’s your guy. Likely the favorite for rookie of the year
next season and has scoring title potential long term. Definite top-five pick.
3.)
Gary Harris- Michigan State: Love him. Harris
may be the best two-way player in the draft.
Offensively he’s a great attacker and penetrator, makes a lot of
athletic finishes around the rim, has a solid midrange game, and handles the
ball well and he’s a sound defender that does his job. Overall he’s a very
high-motor player who’s always in attack mode and playing hard. I’d like to see him expand his jump shot out
to the three-point line and he might be a little undersized for a two guard at
6’4’’. But there’s a lot to like
here. Lottery pick.
4.)
Doug McDermott- Creighton: Amazing college
career. High IQ player. McDermott has unlimited range behind the
three-point line. Scored out of the post
a lot in college too. So there’s lots of
offensive versatility here. He lacks the
athleticism that other lottery picks posses and probably needs to put on some
muscle. But his sharpshooting and his IQ
make him a lottery pick. Tough to say
how he pans out in the pros, he’ll have to prove he can defend players who may
be bigger, stronger, and more athletic than he can and that comes back to his
IQ.
5.)
Nik Stauskas- Michigan: I go back and forth here
but I’m starting to believe. Much like McDermott, Stauskas can shoot the lights
out of an arena. He has a quick release
and can also handle and play the point if need be which isn’t something
McDermott is capable of. He’s a bit of a
stick though at 6’6’’, 190 and not that athletic either. But his ability to shoot the basketball will
make him a lottery pick and he could be very solid two guard in the NBA.
6.)
James Young- Kentucky: While he looked very
average at Kentucky at times, I like this guy.
I think he could pretty good in the NBA.
Young is the definition of streaky shooter. But unlike Stauskas and McDermoot, Young is
very athletic and can score penetrating and above the rim (cue the National
Championship dunk). He three-point shot
is developing and his basketball IQ stinks but when he’s on he’s can fill it
up. So essentially he’s JR Smith. I could see him going above McDermott and
Stauskas it really just depends on if a team has confidence in him to
consistently hit threes because if he can he can be a shooting guard or a small
forward. I’d take him with a lottery pick but he may not be one. Won’t get past 16-17 range.
7.)
PJ Hairston- NBA D-League Texas Legends: Goes to
the D-League after an indefinite suspension at UNC. Good physical makeup and build at 6’5’’ 220
for a two guard. Nice range from the
three-point line, can finish around the rim, but his in between midrange game
is suspect. Maybe an improved handle
would help as well, didn’t really play with the ball in his hands a ton at UNC
before heading to the D-League. Mid-late
first rounder but could develop into a starter.
8.)
Rodney Hood- Duke: Good player that was
overshadowed at Duke by Jabari Parker.
Love the size here at 6’9’’ for a shooting guard. Hood posses above average athleticism and can
shoot well from the perimeter. His
midrange game is decent as well so there’s a lot to like about his offensive
repertoire. He checks out at times on
defense which is something he’ll need to stop doing in the NBA but I’m thinking
mid-to-late first round here and if that’s the case, great value.
9.)
Jerami Grant- Syracuse: Long, athletic, good
mid-range shooter. I see Grant excelling
in the open floor where he can showcase the athleticism. Lots of defensive potential with a 7’3’’
wingspan. Maybe a bit of a tweener at
6’8’’ but I’ll leave that to the team he’s drafted by to figure out how to
implement his length and athleticism into their rotation. His offensive versatility is lacking which
could limit how far he can go in the NBA.
He’ll go mid-to-late first nonetheless.
10.) Cleanthony
Early- Wichita State: This man just looks like an NBA wing player at 6’7’’
219. Fantastic finisher and athletic ability
allows him to play above the rim.
Developing jumper which is improving.
His defense both on the perimeter and in the post against bigger wings
needs work but I love the value here mid-to-late first.
11.) Kyle
Anderson- UCLA: I think Anderson is one of the more undervalued players in this
draft. He’s projected to go in the
late-first but I like him. Anderson
defines point-forward as his 6’9’’ height blended with his superior court
vision and comfort on the perimeter make him a threat as a shooter, passer, and
penetrator. His wingspan and reach make
him an active defender and he also uses his size to be an effective
rebounder. He isn’t as athletic or quick
as some other draft prospects and the fit could be difficult given he’s such a
unique player that really needs a team to cater things around him, but I love
the late-first value here.
12.) KJ
McDaniels- Clemson: Yet another athletic freak.
Great lateral quickness on defense which gives him the ability to guard
multiple positions. He can block shots
which at 6’6’’ really stands out. The
fit is important for McDaniels though.
He’s caught in between the two and the three and his jump shot needs
work. So if he’s on a team that has
shooters already and already has one established wing, then he could be a nice
fit and a good find in the mid-to-late first.
13.) TJ
Warren- NC State: Instinctual scorer.
Good frame for an NBA wing player and is comfortable scoring inside and
outside. Hot and cold three-point
shooter but no doubt capable. Also a
solid rebounder for a wing as Warren averaged over seven rebounds a game at NC
State. He has good instincts on defense
as well which result from his quick hands in passing lanes. He doesn’t have the athleticism others in
this draft do but he’s very good offensively and he’s penchant for getting to
good areas on the floor to score from is why he’ll go mid-first.
14.) Glenn
Robinson III- Michigan: Explosive leaper.
Fantastic length. Another
big-time athlete in this draft class.
Loves to play above the rim.
Decent shooting touch, just a very smooth offensive player. So why isn’t he going higher than late-first
or maybe early-second? Motor is a problem as he can check out at times. Also is caught in between the shooting
guard/small forward positions and at 211, I think some NBA scouts and GMs would
like to see him add weight.
Bigs
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| Getty Images A back injury is the big question surrounding Joel Embiid, but it may not stop Cleveland from selecting him first overall. |
1.)
Joel Embiid- Kansas: The back problems could
scare some NBA teams away but there’s a reason this man was viewed as the first
overall pick in February. Superstar
seven footers are hard to come by in today’s NBA and the team that drafts
Embiid may have one. With a 7’5’’ wingspan
to help him, Embiid is a fantastic shot blocker. He handles the ball very well for a seven
footer, his midrange game is decent, and his athletic ability for his frame is
good. A healthy Embiid is a scary Embiid
and has a superstar ceiling. Will go
top-five for sure and there’s a chance he goes first.
2.)
Julius Randle- Kentucky: Next to Parker, Randle
is the most NBA-ready player in this draft.
His finishing ability is great. Love the motor, plays the game so hard. Fantastic first-step quickness which helps
him score as a face-up forward and can also get it done with his back to the
basket using his strength and NBA body to bully his way to the hoop. As a bruiser, Randle is a bit of a dying
breed when it comes to NBA power forwards.
Nowadays you have lots of power forwards facing up shooting midrange
jumpers and even guys like Kevin Love and Dirk Nowitzki shoot the three
well. There’s nothing wrong with that
but Randle’s post proficiency and ability to bully opposing defenders makes his
a prototype power forward. While he is
an elite rebounder, overall on defense, he’s a work in progress. Showed flashes in the NCAA tournament of
defensive improvement but his short arms are a hindrance to how far he can go
as a defender against NBA bigs. He’s
drawn lots of Zach Randolph comparisons.
Accurate for the most part but his handle for a grown man is very good. If Randle can hone the midrange jumper like
most power forwards have, including Randolph, then he can be even better. Randle enters the draft with a broken right
foot which could hurt his stock. Nonetheless, he’s a walking double-double. Top-ten pick.
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| Getty Images Noah Vonleh has loads of upside. His all-around game mirrors that of Chris Bosh or LaMarcus Aldridge if you're looking for a comparison. |
3.)
Noah Vonleh- Indiana: Like this guy. He’s a fantastic rebounder, he’s long and
athletic, and has a 7’4’’ wingspan. He
can stretch the floor and shoot jump shots (16-for-33 from the three-point line
this year) as a power forward which makes him versatile. Maybe a little raw but once he uses his
length, size, and athletic ability to develop his game both offensively and
defensively could be like a Chris Bosh kind of player in the NBA. A GM that has his choice between Randle and
Vonleh has a tough decision to make and I would totally understand if Vonleh
went ahead of Randle. Top-10 pick.
4.)
Aaron Gordon- Arizona: I believe Gordon is the
second most athletic player in this draft behind Wiggins. Shades of Blake Griffin when Griffin was
coming out of Oklahoma. But I’m not sure
Gordon will ever be as good as Griffin.
There’s a lot to like here but there are some red flags too. I’ll be nice and say his jump shot is
ugly. His free-throw percentage was in
the 40s this year, and his post game is nonexistent. He’s athletic and he’s a good defender so
he’ll go top 10. But another Arizona
power forward who fit this description was Derrick Williams who went second
overall in 2011 and looks like a bust.
I’m not totally writing off Gordon but if I’m a GM and I want a power
forward, I’m much more comfortable with Randle and Vonleh than I am Gordon.
5.)
Dario Saric- Croatia: He’s 6’10’’ and a point
forward. Fantastic ball handler and
court vision for a power forward. He
isn’t super athletic but uses his high basketball IQ to make plays on both
sides of the ball. Can knock down the three
but needs to do so on at a more consistent rate if he's going to shoot from
beyond the arc in the NBA. Needs more of
an inside presence as well to really be an effective power forward. A likely lottery pick but unsure how he’ll
pan out and utilize his skills in the NBA.
6.)
Adrien Payne- Michigan State: Stretch four just
like Vonleh as Payne has a nice perimeter game.
Also like Vonleh Payne is a good rebounder who posses good length,
quickness, and athleticism. But Payne’s
23 which hurts his draft stock. Also it
took Payne some time at Michigan State to get the level he is now where he’s
viewed as a first rounder. So teams may
see that and be scared off of someone who may be more of a project and is 23
already. But I love the value here in
the mid-late first round especially if he ends up on a playoff team looking for
bench depth who can ease him in.
7.)
Clint Capela- Switzerland: Another guy with a
good frame. Capela has a 7’5’’ wingspan
and at 6’10’’ once he bulks up could be used as a center if his team wants to
go small. The athleticism is there and
he’s a big that can really run the floor and get up and down in transition and
finish above the rim. He’s not
fundamentally sound on defense but he’s a decent shot block nonetheless. Fantastic rebounder as well. The jump shot isn’t quite there, post game is
a work in progress, and needs to add strength which makes him a bit of
tweener. But this again is good value
mid-late first and he’s someone I can definitely see being a solid NBA starting
power forward.
8.)
Jusuf Nurkic- Croatia: He’ll go in the first
round merely because he’s a seven footer who’s strong and plays in the paint
but I don’t see him ever panning out.
There are more and more elite athletes in the NBA nowadays and Nurkic
will never be one of them as he’s someone that lacks athleticism and also has
conditioning problems. The team that
picks him ought to use him in a limited role.
9.)
Kristaps Porzingis- Lativa: Nice athleticism for
a big man. In addition to his
athleticism he’s also versatile on both ends for a big man with a nice
perimeter shooting touch and can guard multiple positions on defense and block
shots. This said, Porzingis lacks toughness
and I see him getting beat up by NBA bigs.
He struggles in the post defending and offensively as a
back-to-the-basket big and for someone his size I’m not sure if he can make a
living in the NBA relying on jump shots.
He’ll get drafted too highly due to the athleticism and shooting touch
but he isn’t the prototypical NBA big and lacking those fundamentals will haunt
him.
10.) Jarnell
Stokes-Tennessee: Strong, powerful big, despite at 6’8.5’’ being a little
undersized for the power forward position.
Very adept at absorbing contact inside and finishing. Love the physicality he brings as he’s able
to position himself in the low post and score.
He’s also an exceptional rebounder and shot blocker. But GMs and scouts love to look at the measurables
and for a power forward they just aren’t helping Stokes. He’s not big enough to really be an elite
four in the NBA and struggles to defend length.
Late-first to early second round pick.
This is how I feel these NBA prospects will pan out in the
NBA. The order I did my projections in
has no correlation on the big board.
1.)
Andrew Wiggins- Kansas
2.)
Jabari Parker- Duke
3.)
Joel Embiid- Kansas
4.)
Julius Randle- Kentucky
5.)
Noah Vonleh- Indiana
6.)
Marcus Smart- Oklahoma State
7.)
Dante Exum- Australia
8.)
Gary Harris- Michigan State
9.)
Nik Stauskas- Michigan
10.) Aaron
Gordon- Arizona
11.) James
Young- Kentucky
12.) Doug
McDermott- Creighton
13.) Adrien
Payne- Michigan State
14.) Cleanthony
Early- Wichita State
15.) Rodney
Hood- Duke
16.) PJ
Hairston- NBA D-League
17.) Elfrid
Payton- Louisiana Lafayette
18.) Jerami
Grant- Syracuse
19.) Kyle
Anderson- UCLA
20.) Zach
Lavine- UCLA
21.) KJ
Mcdaniels- Clemson
22.) TJ
Warren- NC State
23.) Tyler
Ennis- Syracuse
24.) Clint
Capela- Switzerland
25.) Dario
Saric- Croatia
26.) Kristaps
Porzingis- Latvia
27.) Jarnell
Stokes- Tennessee
28.) Shabazz
Napier- Connecticut
29.) Jusuf
Nurkic- Bosnia
30.) Glenn
Robinson III- Michigan
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