Why four teams is not the answer for College Football

There is less than one month left in the college football season.  Early on in each week, we see the new polls released and begin to prognosticate who the four teams will be in the inaugural college football playoff.  The problem is, none of it really matters.  The four teams seem to change every week and when all is said and done teams five, six and seven will probably have a legitimate complaint for being left out.

The only team that looks like a lock to make the playoff is Florida State.  If the Seminoles can get past Miami this week, in a weak ACC, they should be playoff bound.  Oregon also looks safe as of now as well with a bye this week and then conference games against Colorado and Oregon State, but the Ducks one loss this season did come a then-unranked Arizona team.  However, two of the top five teams will face off on Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa, as Alabama will host Mississippi State.   Therein lies the problem and is the reason why a four-team playoff will ultimately prove to be too small.

Mississippi State and Alabama could very well end the season as two of the nation’s best four teams.  If Alabama wins on Saturday then they’ll jump into the top four, and Mississippi State’s playoff hopes will take a hit and with a game at the end of the season at Ole Miss it’s very possible Mississippi State could miss the playoff.  If Mississippi State wins, with two losses Alabama’s chance of making the playoff is almost non-existent.  But some could easily argue Alabama could take down Oregon, Florida State or Texas Christian who are currently teams two, three and four respectively.

It’s tough for teams like Mississippi State and Alabama to run the table in a very deep SEC West division.  It’s not as tough for Florida State to go undefeated in the ACC or Oregon to win out in the Pac 12.  A four-team playoff favors the Florida States of the world who can beat up on an average schedule at best and works against the SEC teams who have big games each week just to stay in the conversation.  It’s hard to see both Alabama and Mississippi State making the playoff this year, but if the playoff were eight teams both would probably qualify.  Baylor is another team that sits on the outside looking in that beat TCU earlier in the season.  While there certainly were complaints about the BCS, there are still going to be unhappy teams this year and rightfully so.  If expanded to eight teams, it’s hard to see teams nine, 10 and 11 having the same complaints teams five, six and seven may end up having this year. 

Ultimately, it boils down to strength of schedule.  Teams with more difficult schedules have much more difficult paths to the playoffs.  Florida State had some close calls against Oklahoma State, Notre Dame and Louisville but hasn’t really been tested otherwise and of those three close games, Louisville was the only conference opponent for the Seminoles.  In order to devalue the importance of strength of schedule, the playoff needs to go to eight.