Reality Check for Chip Kelly

If you know me, or have read some of my posts on this blog regarding Chip Kelly, you’ll know I have been fascinated and enamored by the way he does things. Going back to his days at the University of Oregon, I’ve always enjoyed watching his teams play football. When the Eagles hired him on January 16, 2013, I believed it was the right move and that he’d bring a lot of innovative strategies to the NFL and have success unlike other college coaches that tried to take the next step to the pros.

                                                    Brett Davis/USA Today Sports

Despite a collapse at the end of the 2014 season, I thought beginning his tenure in the NFL with two 10-6 seasons and an NFC East division title was a good start for Kelly. Then the craziness began. The Eagles handed Kelly the personnel department and exiled Howie Roseman. Kelly gutted the roster and remade things his way.

Questions arose about Kelly’s readiness to run an NFL franchise despite just two seasons as a head coach and no playoff wins. I hung in, willing to see his project through. Once the summer hit and the season was getting closer, I felt confident that the 2015 Eagles were going to be the best of Kelly’s three teams so far.  Many pundits predicted the Eagles would find their way back into the postseason and make some noise once they got there.

Yet here we are just two weeks into the season and it feels like it’s over.  The up-tempo offense that is synonymous with Kelly could not get anything going for six out of the season’s first eight quarters. This was against two defenses in Atlanta and Dallas that are just mediocre at best.  On Sunday, the Eagles head to MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets, one of the NFL’s best defenses.

This is without a doubt the most adversity Kelly has faced in his coaching career. Skeptics of his offseason overhaul are speaking out even louder. Reports surfaced about the Eagles offense being too predictable and the Dallas defense knowing where certain running plays were going.  There’s no one else Kelly can look at and blame for the horrendous and lifeless 0-2 start the Eagles have had. The reality is these are his guys. He got to do this his way and right now his way isn’t working.

For a coach that makes plenty of snide remarks in press conferences, doesn’t seem to care about what others think of him, and seems pretty set in his ways about how he’s going to do things, this is quite a reality check.  It’s easy to just say back to the drawing table, change things up and make the appropriate adjustments. But that’s not the kind of guy Kelly is.  He believes in his way and no other way.

Now, even more so than last December when the Eagles collapsed, Chip Kelly’s way is being put to the test. The way in which he coaches and the way in which he runs a football team from a personnel standpoint. He took a lot of risks on injury prone players in the offseason.  Kiko Alonso, who he traded LeSean McCoy for, is already hurt and the timetable for his return is unclear. There’s no reason to think the Eagles offense is going to get on track and the toughest defense it will face all year on Sunday. This is a trying time for Chip Kelly, and he needs to respond because if not, this is going to get a whole lot worse.

Photo:

http://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/chip_kelly_surly_with_media_over_questions_about_poor_play_qb/s1_8061_19590559

2015 NFL Season Predictions

We are less than 48 hours away from the season kicking off so time for some predictions. Numbers after record, if applicable, are team’s playoff seed.

NFC East

PHI (12-4)-2

DAL (9-7)

NYG (8-8)

WSH (3-13)

Analysis: The Eagles are the most well rounded team in this division.  Chip Kelly’s offseason raised eyebrows across the country but his moves improved the Eagles roster and will have them back at the top of the NFC East.  The Cowboys cannot put any running back behind that offensive line, will not go 8-0 on the road again like they did last season, and still have a very suspect defense.   The multitude of weapons the Giants have on offense will keep them at .500 while the NFL’s biggest soap opera will continue in the nation’s capital.

NFC North

GB (11-5)-3

MIN (10-6)-6

DET (8-8)

CHI (5-11)

Analysis: Green Bay is going to be there every year it seems like.  Jordy Nelson’s injury doesn’t help but there’s no one in the division that can knock them off yet.  Minnesota is coming though.  A 7-9 year given expectations without Adrian Peterson in 2014 was pretty good.  Now with Adrian Peterson back and Teddy Bridgewater coming off a solid rookie season, they’ll take the next step into the playoffs.  Detroit is like the Giants.  They’ll score points and have some exciting plays, but their defense will hold them back.  Chicago is a train wreck that is going nowhere fast.

NFC South

CAR (9-7)-4

ATL (8-8)

NO (8-8)

TB (6-10)

Analysis: This will be the worst division in football, as I believe it’s a race to nine.  Despite no Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina will do just enough to sneak by.  Atlanta and New Orleans define mediocre.  Tampa will be better and it will be interesting to see what kind of rookie season is in store for Jameis Winston.

NFC West

SEA (13-3)-1

ARZ (11-5)-5

STL (8-8)

SF (4-12)

Analysis: Seattle will not suffer any Super Bowl hangover.  The addition of Jimmy Graham helped its offense immensely and the defense is still special.  Arizona also has a talented defense and with Carson Palmer at full health will be the NFC’s first wild card.  St. Louis has a nice defense and figures to run the ball a lot but won’t win enough games to be a factor in the playoff hunt.  San Francisco had a nightmare of an offseason and is bound to struggle.

AFC East

NE (11-5)-3

MIA (11-5)- 5

BUF (9-7)

NYJ (7-9)

Analysis: Tom Brady is playing week one if you didn’t know.  His suspension being nullified puts the defending Super Bowl champs back on top in the AFC East although Miami is coming with a good defense and some young talent on offense.  Buffalo and the Jets have stellar defenses but neither is good enough on offense to crack the postseason.

AFC North

BAL (12-4)-2

PIT (10-6)

CIN (10-6)

CLE (5-11)

Analysis: Baltimore is another team, like Green Bay, that you always expect in the thick of things come December.  Mark Trestman will help the offense score more and the defense is still good.  Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will certainly be in the playoff mix but ultimately both left.  Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t good enough and Andy Dalton remains too mediocre for Cincinnati to make the playoffs.  Cleveland fans are in for a long year but at least the Cavs start in less than two months.

AFC South

IND (13-3)-1

HOU (9-7)

JAX (6-10)

TEN (3-13)

Analysis: If it weren’t for Indy, then this is by far the worst division in football.  But, the Colts are a super bowl contender and have an incredible offense.  Houston’s defense is top notch and DeAndre Hopkins is a nice talent.  Arian Foster’s return could be earlier than expected so Houston will go over .500 for the second year in a row after just two wins in 2013.  Jacksonville won’t be a laughingstock, as quarterback Blake Bortles will improve and there’s some young talent on offense.  Tennessee might have its franchise quarterback, but still has a terrible roster.

AFC West

DEN (11-5)-4

SD (10-6)-6

KC (9-7)

OAK (7-9)

Analysis: Like this division.  Denver is still going to be there, despite Peyton Manning another year older.  The Broncos have a strong defense they can rely on this season.  San Diego will be able to run the ball a ton with its first-round pick Melvin Gordon, and will play ball control on its way to the playoffs.  Kansas City will be close, Jeremy Maclin helps the offense immensely and the defense is very good, but the Chiefs will fall short.  Oakland is on the rise.  Despite a last-place finish they have some very nice young pieces to move forward with when you look at Derek Carr, Khalil Mack, and Amari Cooper.

Awards:

NFL MVP and Offensive Player of the Year: Andrew Luck (IND)

Defensive Player of the Year: JJ Watt (HOU)

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Melvin Gordon (SD)

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Leonard Williams (NYJ)

Coach of the Year: Mike Zimmer (MIN)

Playoffs

Wild Card Weekend

NFC (3) GB over (6) MIN

         (5) ARZ over (4) CAR

AFC (3) NE over (6) SD

         (5) MIA over (4) DEN

Divisional Weekend

NFC (1) SEA over (5) ARZ

          (2) PHI over (3) GB

AFC (1) IND over (5) MIA

         (2) BAL over (3) NE

Championship Sunday

NFC Championship- (1) SEA over (2) PHI

AFC Championship- (1) IND over (2) BAL

Super Bowl L- (1) SEA over (1) IND

10 Random College Football Thoughts

There are 10 days until the college football season kicks off on September 3.  So I decided to give 10 quick thoughts on the upcoming season like I did a year ago.

1.     I think TCU isn’t going to be denied this season and will win the National Championship.  The Horned Frogs won their last game of the regular season 55-3 but were left out of the party a year ago as Ohio State stole the last playoff spot.  This season, TCU does not play a preseason top 25 team until November 21.  While a showdown with Baylor in the regular season finale looms, no one’s stopping the Horned Frogs from making this season’s playoff.

2.     I think it doesn’t matter who starts at quarterback for Ohio State.  It’s an obviously hot topic of discussion entering the season but whether it’s JT Barrett or Cardale Jones won’t matter big picture.  The Buckeyes roster is loaded.

3.     I think Wisconsin’s Corey Clement is going to win the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s top running back.  As a backup to Melvin Gordon a year ago, Clement ran for 949 yards on 6.5 yards per carry.  As the volume increases, the yards will explode and Clement will be the next great Wisconsin running back.

4.     I think Michigan State’s Connor Cook throws for 4,000 yards. I promise I’ll stop thinking about the Big 10 after this but I think Cook’s in for a big year with the backfield in East Lansing unproven.

5.     I think Ole Miss is going to make the playoff.  Perhaps the boldest one of my thoughts but there are a lot of elite college football players at Ole Miss like wide receiver Laquon Treadwell and defensive linemen Robert Nkemdiche. A week three upset at Alabama will get this group of Rebels off and running.

6.     I think Oregon finishes the year unranked.  The Ducks have some difficult road Pac-12 games and also has to travel to Michigan State early in the season so I see a down year for the Ducks. USC is the best team in the Pac-12 in my opinion.

                           Cooper Neill/Getty Images

7.     I think Florida’s Vernon Hargreaves III is the best defensive player in the country.  A very fluid corner that makes things look easy with his speed.  Hargreaves led the SEC in pass breakups last season as a sophomore and is only getting better.  Gators fans should enjoy him before he starts playing on Sundays.

8.     I think LSU’s Leonard Fournette leads the SEC in rushing.  I’ll take him over Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. Keep an eye on Alex Collins at Arkansas with Jonathan Williams out for the year but Fournette leads the way on the ground in the best conference in America.

9.     I think Laquon Treadwell wins the Fred Biletnikoff award as the nation's top receiver. He’s a big reason why my fifth thought exists.

10.  I think TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin (right) wins the Heisman.  I’m buying the TCU hype and I love their dual-threat signal caller.  His senior season will be special.

Photo: http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/aKEt17SN8OU/Minnesota+v+TCU/L0lWLWnwzWB/Trevone+Boykin

The Misunderstanding of Chip Kelly

Much has been made of Philadelphia Eagles head coach Chip Kelly’s penchant for parting ways with talented football players in order to create his kind of culture in the locker room.  DeSean Jackson was the first and many followed this past offseason as Kelly gained total control of personnel over Howie Roseman.  The trade of running back LeSean McCoy, the release of all-pro guard Evan Mathis and most recently the trade of cornerback Brandon Boykin raised eyebrows across the National Football League.

                                                                                Associated Press

Wide receiver Riley Cooper is still with the team two years after uttering a racial slur in public.  As a result, the public has questioned Kelly’s ability to handle egos.  McCoy and Boykin both made comments following their departures from the team that insinuated Kelly does not work well with the black players on his team.

In today’s world, it’s easy for someone who has made decisions as bold as Kelly’s to be misunderstood.  That is what has happened here as the third-year coach decided to put the team through a roster makeover in the offseason and the motives behind his moves were blown out of proportion. 

Chip Kelly’s job is to win football games for the Eagles.  Who cares if he does not relate well with certain players on the team? That’s not what he’s getting paid to do.  Granted, culture has certainly driven some of his moves but if he feels that creating a certain culture is necessary to win then what’s the big deal?  While his decisions have people questioning if Kelly is a racist, there are football reasons behind many of his moves as well.

Let’s start with the trade of McCoy to the Buffalo Bills for inside linebacker Kiko Alonso.  After taking heat for not getting anything for Jackson in 2014, Kelly moved McCoy and his hefty cap hit to Buffalo for a 24-year old inside linebacker who appears to be fully healthy after missing all of 2014 with a torn anterior cruciate ligament.  Alonso had an impressive rookie season in 2013 and with two years left on his rookie contract serves as a cheap option for production on defense. 

To replace McCoy, Kelly signed former Dallas Cowboy DeMarco Murray.  Murray’s downhill, straight ahead running style is different than McCoy’s who tended to dance and look for big plays at times when nothing was there. In Kelly’s fast-paced offense, a back like Murray who’s going to take what’s there and gain yards as often as possible is very important to keep the chains moving.  So with the McCoy trade, Kelly got a young and cheap inside linebacker who figures to be a key contributor on defense in Alonso and replaced McCoy with a better scheme fit in Murray.

Trading Brandon Boykin was a classic case of getting something for someone who isn’t in your long-term plans.  Boykin is in line for a new contract following the 2015 season.  There’s a strong possibility that contract would not be another one with the Eagles had the nickel corner remained on the roster in 2015.  The Eagles brought in an influx of defensive backs as Kelly continued to remake the team in the spring.  They signed Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond.  E.J. Biggers and Jaylen Watkins will compete for spots on the roster in camp. They drafted Eric Rowe, JaCorey Shepherd and Randall Evans. Nolan Carroll is returning for his second season with the Eagles with a chance to start opposite Byron Maxwell as the team’s other cornerback.  Boykin was hopeful to be given a chance to move outside and start but with the way the Eagles approached the offseason it’s clear they wanted to move in a different direction and so they gave Boykin a chance to start outside on a Pittsburgh Steelers team in desperate need of cornerbacks. 

The Eagles got a 5^th round draft pick back for Boykin but it could be a 4^th round selection if Boykin plays 60% of Pittsburgh’s defensive snaps in 2015.  So it seems like a win-win.  Boykin should get a chance to play outside in Pittsburgh and if all goes well the Eagles will get a 4^th-round draft pick back for him which is decent value in return for someone who you weren’t planning on keeping around beyond this upcoming season anyway.

At the end of the day, Chip Kelly is a football coach that is trying to win games.  Say what you want about any preferential treatment that may or may not exist, this looks like the best roster Kelly has to work with in his three years with the Eagles and he was the one who assembled it.  Winning solves everything and if everything goes according to planned, no one will care about how well Chip Kelly relates with his players.

Photo: http://nfl.univision.com/philadelphia-eagles/article/2015-07-27/chip-kelly-vida-privada-eagles-2015-nfl?refPath=/deportes/noticias/